I guess I'm supposed to be excited that the filibuster of the gun bill failed miserably, with sixteen Republicans joining all but two of the voting Democrats to allow debate to happen. BooMan is thrilled -- he thinks this will break up the entire obstructionist logjam:
This bill will pass and then enormous pressure will be put on the House to follow suit. They will pass it as well. This will set up the new dynamic and set the precedent needed to pass immigration reform. I believe we will succeed there as well. The final piece will be a sequester-replacement bill, but that will await the arrival of a new climate in Washington which will not come to fruition until the first two bills are muscled through the House.I don't buy it. I give the president credit for using his community organizing skills (for the first time in his presidency) to change the terms of the debate -- Newtown was on our minds as this vote took place, even though the Sandy Hook massacre happened months ago, and he made sure that happened.
But I absolutely don't believe that the bill will pass the House -- there are too many deep-red districts where this mood swing just isn't happening -- though at this point I think the bill might (and I stress might) pass the Senate. I don't think any Republicans other than Pat Toomey and Mark Kirk will vote for it, and I think many red-state Democrats, especially the ones up for reelection in 2014, will shun it. A full floor debate on the bill will give the right more time to rev up its pressure groups and marshal its arguments.
I even think the Mitch McConnell story could play into this. A Kentucky Democrat is claiming that a couple of members of the liberal group Progress Kentucky were responsible for the recently released secret tape of a McConnell opposition research strategy session.
What does this have to do with guns? Well, on the right, the argument against even the wildly popular notion of expanding background checks is that, via a slippery slope, privacy horrors could ensue. What's at the Drudge Report right now? A story headlined "Sen. [Mike] Lee: Backgound Checks Could Allow [Attorney General Eric] Holder to Create Gun Registry Using Regulations." Another story headlined "Highway Patrol Gave Feds 'Entire List of Missouri Concealed Weapon Permit Holders.'" Elsewhere on the right, there's a story going somewhat viral about a guy near Buffalo, New York, who was mistakenly ordered to give up his guns under the new New York gun law because he's taken anti-anxiety meds. The decision has been reversed, but this is being treated as (a) fascist and (b) a violation of the gun owner's privacy.
The McConnell story reinforces the right-wing message that liberalism = Big Brother. As I always say, right-wing propagandists are very good at persuading the rank-and-file to hold every Democrat and liberal responsible for any controversial act by any Democrat, liberal, or leftist. Therefore, bugging McConnell = fascist government oversight of your guns.
With or without reference to McConnell, I think that's how the GOP is going to push back on the background check bill. And I fear it will be enough to scuttle the legislation, though I hope I'm wrong.
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UPDATE: The Missouri story linked above has been picked up by the "respectable" National Review (yes, Andrew McCarthy is one of the most overwrought people at NR, but still). And over in Jesusland, here's Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council worrying aloud that the White House, given how hostile it is to religion and stuff, could be planning to put all Catholics and evangelicals on a watch list that prevents them from buying guns. Paranoia strikes deep....
