THE GOP CAPITULATIONS BEGIN

Lindsey Graham was one of the first Republican critics of President Trump's Iran capitulation. A bad sign for Trump? Nahhh -- since then, Graham has caved:

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Wednesday commended the new memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the U.S. and Iran, after previously expressing skepticism about the state of negotiations between the two nations.

The senator shared in a social media post Wednesday afternoon that he had a “very lengthy and productive discussion” with special envoy Steve Witkoff about the negotiations.

“After this discussion, it is my opinion that signing the MOU will be beneficial to the United States, in as much as the Strait of Hormuz will begin to open, and the hostilities with Iran will stop,” Graham wrote.

“Whether or not the United States can reach an acceptable, verifiable deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program and other issues is yet to be determined, but I see little downside to trying,” he continued. “The economic stability that comes from opening up the Strait and the cessation of hostilities could create a pathway to peace well beyond the Iranian conflict.”

Rupert Murdoch's New York Post was initially skeptical:

On Wednesday morning, the front page of The New York Post offered a critical view of the administration. “Trump devastated Iran, now he hits them with a ... LOVEBOMB,” the right-leaning tabloid’s front page blared, above an image of a burning American flag and text saying that Mr. Trump’s deal showered Iran’s leaders with “cash — and no sanctions.”

But last night the Post published an opinion piece by Miranda Devine that reaches North Korean levels of praise for Dear Leader.

Trump is showing the world, G7 leaders who’s the ‘boss’ and deserves respect for his deal-making

“I’m the boss,” President Trump joked when he arrived a bit late to a meeting with G7 leaders in France Wednesday.

He is.

That’s what his detractors forget.

America is “the boss” again, the colossus.

Iran doesn’t bully us.

Israel doesn’t instruct us.

Europe can sneer at Donald Trump all it likes, but it’s a supplicant.

China respects us.

Canada bows.

Trump understands power, and it rests easy on his shoulders.

He joked about it at the G7 in his relaxed American fashion, and European leaders now get it.

They laughed along, but they understood.

Devine goes on in this vein for many more paragraphs, some of which have more than one sentence. It's the verbal equivalent of those AI-slop cartoons that depict trump as a shirtless two-fisted brawler with a six-pack.

Sometimes you can almost hear Republicans gritting their teeth and defending Trump policies they hate:

On Wednesday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Source,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) defended letting Iran get immediate waivers to sell oil....

Host Kaitlan Collins asked, “In 2021, you said that relieving sanctions on Iran, in your words, would ‘only contribute to more terror attacks against America and its allies,’ this includes lifting sanctions on Iran. If they have 60 to $70 billion a year that they get from oil, will America be safer?”

Marshall answered, “I think under this agreement they will be. Look, you’re comparing a different set of time what was going [on] in ’21 to today. It’s a completely different day. We are now negotiating from a point of power. Look, this is a two-way agreement. You can’t have everything you want. And all the president is doing is letting them start [to] get back on their feet. I really think this probably only means about $30 billion. They’re already selling about $30 billion a year in oil. This will probably bring it up to $60 billion. Their whole economy, maybe 4 or $500 billion. So I think you have to let them help themselves a little bit here as well. But everything beyond this is a trust, but verify situation. So let’s give them a chance. Even this just for 60 days. Let’s give them a chance to start bringing their economy back together, rather than Americans dumping money in, that what was what Barack Obama did.”

Later, Collins asked, “There’s no requirement they have to meet to get waivers to sell oil. They can start doing that right now. Are you okay with that?”

Marshall answered, “Absolutely. I think, again, we had to get them to sign the document. So, we gave that up in response for them giving up their nukes. So, I would give them $30 billion of their own money back for them to agree to never build a nuclear weapon? Of course. I’ll take that deal every time. And President Trump leveraged that, I think, perfectly.”

Gas prices are dropping. As the midterms approach, that's primarily what Republicans want because they know that's the main thing Americans care about.

These Republicans know that Trump sold America out. They know that Iran won. But at the end of the day, the party will rally around Trump, because that's what Republicans do.

IN THE RIGHT-WING BUBBLE, THEY DON'T THINK J.D. VANCE IS A LOSER

J.D. Vance might not be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, and he might lose the general election if he is the nominee. But if you think he's too juiceless and unlikable to win support even among Republicans, you haven't peered into the right-wing bubble.

You might think Vance's appearance on The View yesterday was awkward for him, or even a disaster -- the headline in Britain's Independent was "JD Vance Went on The View and Got Absolutely Torn to Shreds by Middle-Aged Women." AP's lede was this:

Vice President JD Vance, appearing Tuesday on ABC’s “The View” to promote his newly released memoir on faith, was put on the spot from the first question, peppered for nearly an hour on Jeffrey Epstein, the economy, immigration and other issues facing the Trump administration.

You might think that Rupert Murdoch's media properties are likely to put their collective thumb on the scale for Marco Rubio in 2028, based on this Axios preview of the new Maggie Haberman/Jonathan Swan book:

In a scene from the forthcoming "Regime Change," President Trump asks a guest at a private dinner last year to compare Vice President Vance to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.... this time, the judge was Rupert Murdoch.

And with Vance and Rubio sitting awkwardly at the table, Murdoch was notably more effusive about Rubio....

Trump asked Murdoch who he liked best between Vance and Rubio, with the president adding: "They're both great."

Trump: "What do you think of JD?"

Murdoch: "Well ... I think JD has the potential to be great."

Trump: "And what do you think of Marco?"

Murdoch answered immediately: "Marco is brilliant."

But much of the right-wing media admires Vance because he battles the libs and fights the culture wars. Here was the lead story at Breitbart earlier this morning:

Vice President JD Vance and other Republicans have criticized Major League Baseball (MLB) for warning players against wearing Bible verses during Pride Night.

... The incident occurred last Friday when Giants right-hander Landen Roupp displayed “Gen 9:12-16” on his Pride Night hat, which was followed by relievers JT Brubaker and Ryan Walker also featuring Bible verses on their official Pride Night hats.

“The writing on the cap violates our rules, and consistent with normal practice, we have warned the players about future violations,” Pat Courtney, MLB’s chief communications officer, told The Athletic on Monday.

Vice President JD Vance responded to a Sports Illustrated post on X reporting the reprimand.

“Trump won, we don’t have to do this anymore,” said Vance.

And on the subject of that appearance on The View, Vance is getting praise from legacy right-wing sites like RedState (headline: "JD Vance Ventures Onto 'The View,' Serves Up an Unforgettable Schooling") as well as from contemporary Republican influencers:

Other Republican candidates might seem more personable or presidential, but Vance likes to bang heads with Trump critics -- probably less out of loyalty to Trump than because he simply likes fighting with liberals. He enjoys the culture war. Nobody's asking him to weigh in on baseball's Pride Night -- he just did it, apparently for the sheer joy of fighting.

Marco Rubio will do this kind of thing if he's asked to, but Vance clearly enjoys it more. He didn't need to go on The View -- I'm sure he could have limited himself to a few mainstream-media TV appearances where he wouldn't face questioning from a team of hostile interviewers. He wanted this. That's why I still think he's the candidate to beat in the 2028 Republican primaries.

DEMOCRATS MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY

The headline of a new Politico story reads:

Republicans hopeful Iran deal could stop the pain at the pump — but it may be too late

Sadly, I think they're worrying for no reason. The story tells us:

Gas prices have been falling since their pre-Memorial Day peak of $4.56 per gallon in anticipation of a deal to end the war, now hovering just above $4 a gallon. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could accelerate that trend though it could take months, as the strait is freed of mines, tankers start the slow work of picking up oil shipments and Middle Eastern countries work to restore oil and gas fields hit by Iranian missiles.

But "months" probably means "by fall" -- exactly when Republicans want gas prices to be considerably lower. I think that timelime is what motivated Trump to agree to a (bad) deal at this exact moment.

Is it too late for Republicans? Are they cooked? Regrettably, it doesn't appear that way. Already, the small decline in the price of gas seems to be correlated with improved polling for President Trump and the GOP. On May 26, Trump's net job approval was -19.0 in the Real Clear Politics average: 39.6% approve, 58.6% disapprove. Now it's -15.0%: 40.9% approve, 55.9% disapprove. And Democrats' lead on the generic congressional ballot has also shrunk, according to RCP: On May 28, it was 8.1% (Democrats 48.8%, Republicans 40.7%). Now it's 5.7% (Democrats 48.3%, Republicans 42.6%).

The deal could fall apart. But I think the most likely scenario is that we'll reach Day 60 of the negotiating period without a final agreement and both sides will just kick the can down the road, maybe for ninety days this time, to get Trump past Election Day. If the Strait of Hormuz is open, even with tolls (or no tolls but "fees"), gas prices will improve. And that might be all Republicans need (along with gerrymandering, intimidation of voter registration workers, and other forms of skulduggery) to minimize their losses. People who study the data know that gas prices are tightly correlated with approval of the party in power.

I know, I know -- Trump is likely to keep mismanaging the country in the runup to November. But even Trump will have a hard time making a mistake as huge as the Iran war.

Which is why I'm beginning to worry that Democrats aren't going to get their blue tsunami, and might not even get a big blue wave. The 2026 midterms could be a mirror image of the 2022 midterms, when Republicans expected a red tsunami and had a net gain of only 9 seats in the House, and a net loss of 1 in the Senate.

Democrats have failed to capitalize on the trough in Trump's polling. This was the moment when they needed to look vigorous, confident, and full of ideas for getting the country out of its morass. I watched Bill Clinton do that in the spring of 1992. He might have been a different kind of Democrat -- pro-death penalty, moderate on other issues -- but he didn't go around apologizing for others in his party. He just talked confidently about his agenda.

Democrats today still seem to be trying to figure out what they stand for, with the general election less than five months away. A Democrat who isn't afraid to talk about his agenda, Graham Platner, just won more primary votes than any previous Democratic Senate primary candidate in his state, despite being -- like Clinton in 1992 -- partly weighed down by scandal. But Platner is an exception.

Over the last few months, Democrats should have carried themselves with confidence, knowing that the public is tired of the other party's approach to governing. They should have behaved as if it's obvious that they're the normal ones. I think they missed their shot. I still believe they'll win the House, and a takeover of the Senate isn't out of the question, but it'll be because swing voters who chose Trump in 2024 decide to stay home, not because Democrats have won a significant number of those voters over.

Democrats have time to become a more impressive party. But a party that won't even rally to defend Michelle Obama -- Michelle Obama! -- doesn't look like a party that has enough fight in it to stand up for ordinary voters, at least for now.

DEMOCRATS SHOULD MAKE JOSH HOKIT TODAY'S MAIN CHARACTER (updated)

I've said a few times here that Democrats should focus on President Trump's failures on important issues and on anything that makes Trump and Republicans look bad, even if it's trivial -- the ballroom, Greenland, putting Trump's face on money. Today we have one key issue in each category. I'm pleased to see that some Democrats are already condemning Trump's surrender to the Iranians:

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on “Fox News Sunday” that the U.S. would be receiving “less” under a proposed deal with Iran than it got from the Islamic Republic via the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was the deal that the Obama administration negotiated to curb Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief....

“So, we have spent billions of dollars. We’ve lost 14 personnel killed in action, hundreds wounded, and we’ve disrupted the world economy. And we’re getting basically less than what we had under the JCPOA, which President Trump walked away from,” Reed told Fox News host Shannon Bream....

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, slammed the reported terms of the deal as “basically a surrender document” from Trump to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

“I mean, $100 billion of taxpayer money already put into this war, 14 Americans dead, and we get a deal that just reopens the strait that was already open before he started the war? How is that a win?” Moulton told MS NOW on Saturday.

But Democrats should also draw attention to this:

UFC heavyweight Josh Hokit sparked backlash after using his post-fight interview at the White House to repeat a false claim about former first lady Michelle Obama following his victory over Derrick Lewis on Sunday.

After defeating Lewis by technical knockout at UFC Freedom 250, Hokit thanked President Donald Trump for hosting the event before ending his interview with UFC commentator Joe Rogan by saying, “Michelle Obama is a man, am I right, America?”

He said this after praising Trump and Jesus Christ, and also making a sex joke about another fighter's mother.

Josh Hokit just called Michelle Obama “a man” on the mic after winning at UFC Freedom 250.

HOKIT: “Hey, shout out to Trump for having the balls to put some sh*t like this on!”

“And if I’m going to say anything, there’s only person more incredible than the Incredible Hulk and… pic.twitter.com/ydNPIEEHww

— Overton (@overton_news) June 15, 2026

The president of the United States “appeared to show a half-smile” in response to Hokit's insult, according to CNN.

I know of only one Democratic member of Congress who's condemned this, though a couple of people who aren't in office have spoken up:

Representative Melanie Stansbury, a New Mexico Democrat, wrote in a post on X, “OK, so let me get this straight…the dude who puked on himself live on TV during his weigh in, is hurling insults at the former first lady now? Disgusting. Welcome to the Trump Administration.”

Yeah, that happened:

The White House Part II - Josh Hokit showed up to the weigh-ins "drunk" and threw up on himself.

[image or embed]

— Raider (@iwillnotbesilenced.bsky.social) June 14, 2026 at 1:04 AM

Jon Favreau, a podcast host and former speechwriter for former President Barack Obama, said, “I’m sure what happened next was a strong condemnation of the remarks from everyone else with a microphone, right?”

Former NFL quarterback Robert Griffin III also criticized Hokit, writing: “Josh Hokit won the biggest fight of his career at the White House and decides to finish his interview by calling Michelle Obama a man. What a disgrace.”

Where's Hakeem Jeffries? Where's Chuck Schumer? Where's AOC? (I see nothing about this in their Twitter feeds.) I know it's relatively early Monday morning, but you don't need to ask a consultant before condemning this. Every Democrat's reaction to this should be visceral.

This is a layup. Michelle Obama is one of the most popular public figures in America. She'll never run for office, but polling from the summer of 2024 suggests that if she'd replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, she would have beaten Trump by double digits.

I think every Democrat in America should condemn Hokit (and Trump for giving him a platform), the way every Republican in America would have condemned an entertainer who accused Melania Trump of being a former escort in a show on the White House lawn. They all would have condemned the president, too. Some would have said the president should resign. They probably would have sponsored a congressional resolution condemning the remarks and dared Democrats to vote against it.

When I brought this up on Bluesky, one poster wrote:

Hokit is a nothing and a nobody. No need to give him that level of attention and notoriety.

He isn't -- he's a famous athlete -- but Republicans don't hesitate to make even ordinary people into national villains. The entire business model of Libs of TikTok is Let's find a random drag queen from Indiana and sic a Republican mob on that person because of a post that was written to amuse fifty followers. Hokit, at least, is a public figure. He intended those remarks for a mass audience.

Millions of right-wingers think "Michelle is a man" is a hilarious joke. Millions of non-right-wingers have no idea that right-wingers are so vile. It's time they learned.

Instead, liberal commentators are scolding critics of the UFC event.

I lost hope of persuading people out of social media reactions that get a lot of intra-liberal engagement but are unhelpful. Still, if you want to know how billionaires like Trump convince working class people that journalists and adjunct professors are the "elite," the UFC reactions are it.

— Amanda Marcotte (@amandamarcotte.bsky.social) June 14, 2026 at 9:42 AM

But in fact, the event seemed like a bad idea even to non-"elitists."

CNN’s Harry Enten: “The big problem with these UFC fights for Trump is that they reinforce the idea that he's out of touch with Americans. Just 16% say these fights are appropriate. Even just 31% of the GOP do. This comes as 60% of voters and 80% of independents say the White House is out of touch.”

[image or embed]

— Jon Cooper (@joncooper-us.bsky.social) June 14, 2026 at 2:12 PM

Ordinary people understand that there's a time and place for UFC fighting (and trash-talking), and this wasn't it. Non-Republicans also know that Michelle Obama is a woman, even if Republicans don't.

Democrats should make Republicans own this moment.

*****

UPDATE: Hakeem Jeffries weighs in:

Nothing about the vile and disgusting attack on Michelle Obama?

These extremists are sick people. pic.twitter.com/BTmVK0mh3S

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) June 15, 2026

And while I'm not a fan of AI, I'll make an exception for this, which I'd seriously consider posting if I were a member of Congress:

WE HAVE THE UFC AT THE LINCOLN MEMORIAL BECAUSE TRUMP DOESN'T KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HISTORIC IMPORTANCE AND FAME

Why is this happening?

In front of the Lincoln Memorial. This.

[image or embed]

— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) June 13, 2026 at 2:09 PM

Obviously it's happening because it pleases Donald Trump, who is a shallow vulgarian. But it's more than that. It's happening because Trump envies Abraham Lincoln -- and envies him in the wrong way. When Trump looks at the Lincoln Memorial -- and also the Washington Monument -- he doesn't see tributes to presidents whose deeds (and also, in Lincoln's case, words) were historically important. He sees presidents who are famous -- famous the way celebrities are famous, famous the way he wants to be famous, now and after his death. Trump is jealous of their fame and wants to usurp it, particularly Lincoln's.

Presidents don't need to have a deep understanding of history. Ronald Reagan didn't. George W. Bush didn't. But even Reagan and Dubya understood that presidential deeds exist on a separate plane from popular celebrity. Reagan thought his efforts to win the Cold War once and for all (and lower taxes on the rich, and destroy the American labor movement) would change the course of history. He was right to think that. He seemed to understand that this wasn't at all like being famous in Hollywood, even if he used Hollywood techniques to sell the public on his presidency.

George W. Bush thought his decision to conquer Iraq and direct its future was historically significant. He was right, though not in the way he imagined.

Barack Obama, who understands history, does things that celebrities do (for instance, compiling an annual list of favorite books, songs, and movies and posting it on Instagram), but as president he did things he hoped would change the course of history (for instance, fighting to pass the Affordable Care Act, or negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran). Obama knows that those acts are on separate planes.

All Donald Trump sees is fame. That's why he seemed to have no actual goal when he decided to attack Iran. He just wanted to be famous for being the guy who beat Iran after all the other presidents failed.

Trump has profound Lincoln envy, but when he looks at Lincoln, what he sees is pure surface. He said in a 2016 campaign speech:

I can be more presidential than any president the United States has ever had except for honest Abe Lincoln. He's tough with the top hat. I can't. Honest Abe. I mean, he was seriously president. Honest Abe. I don't think I can beat honest Abe.

That was five days after he said:

I could be the most presidential person other than -- I always joke and say other than Abe Lincoln. He was pretty good. He was a serious president, right? He had the serious president look.

By the 2024 campaign, he was regularly saying this:

... they said, you know, sir, you're gonna go down as one of the greatest presidents ever. I said, really? No. I said, really? I said, better than Washington. They said, yes, sir. I said, better than honest, Abe Lincoln. They said, yes, sir. I said, I like this guy that said that. I said, guy --, that's a smart guy.

In between, in 2020, there was this during the early days of COVID:

As President Trump’s aides ran down the list of possible backdrops for his latest Fox News event, they eventually landed on their favorite: the Lincoln Memorial, an iconic tribute to an American life, and one of Mr. Trump’s preferred places to add a prime-time touch of drama to his presidency.

There was just one catch: While Mr. Trump and many other presidents have hosted inauguration concerts and gatherings on the memorial’s steps, any event meant to draw an audience inside the interior near Daniel Chester French’s sculpture of a seated Lincoln is prohibited. The area beginning with the marble staircase where the columns start constitutes a boundary protected by federal law.

So on Sunday, when the president sat down with two Fox News anchors at Lincoln’s marbled feet during a coronavirus-focused virtual “town hall,” it was because a directive issued by David Bernhardt, the secretary of the interior, had allowed them to do so.

Mr. Bernhardt, a former oil lobbyist whose Senate nomination was contested by Democrats who pointed to multiple accusations of conflicts of interest and ethical violations, ordered the memorial temporarily closed for the event, citing the coronavirus.

The article, by Katie Rogers of The New York Times, says that Trump's aides chose the site, but Fox's Bret Baier, addressing Trump, referred to it as "Your choice."

The triumphal arch that Trump now wants to build would be massive, and would ruin historically meaningful site lines in Washington, as this NPR story notes:

The proposed structure would be 250 feet tall, more than double the height of the Lincoln Memorial. That's concerning to preservationists and members of the public who have expressed opposition to the project at every turn — in large part because it would obstruct this significant line of sight.

"The connection of the Lincoln Memorial, representing Lincoln himself, to the home of the leader of the Confederate Army, Robert E. Lee, was designed to help heal the wounds of the war that tore apart the nation ... to disrupt this view would disrupt this reconciliation," said architectural historian Alison Hoagland, one of several concerned speakers at the Commission of Fine Arts' May meeting.

But of course Trump wants his arch to diminish the Lincoln Memorial. Remember, this is the guy who responded to the destruction of the Twin Towers on 9/11 by (incorrectly) telling a radio interviewer that he now owned downtown Manhattan's tallest building.

... [Alan] Marcus asked whether Trump’s 40 Wall Street building had suffered any damage. Before getting into his response about his Financial District property, the businessman had something he wanted on the record.

“40 Wall Street actually was the second-tallest building in downtown Manhattan, and it was actually, before the World Trade Center, was the tallest — and then, when they built the World Trade Center, it became known as the second tallest,” Trump said in the WWOR interview. “And now it’s the tallest.”

To Trump, history has no meaning. Only prominence and fame are real.

We can see this even in an absurd moment early in Trump's first term. I'm sure you recall the day in 2017 when it seemed clear that Trump had no idea who Frederick Douglass was. Trump described him as "an example of somebody who’s done an amazing job and is being recognized more and more." But take a look at this longer version of that quote, from CNN:

Trump spoke Wednesday about Douglass – who died in 1895 – and Martin Luther King Jr. through the context of the National Museum of African-American History and Culture, the newest Smithsonian museum that opened in 2016.

“I am very proud now that we have a museum on the National Mall where people can learn about Reverend King, so many other things,” Trump said. “Frederick Douglass is an example of somebody who’s done an amazing job and is being recognized more and more, I notice.”

Trump added: “Harriet Tubman, Rosa Parks, and millions more black Americans who made America what it is today. Big impact.”

"Big impact," "an amazing job," "recognized more and more" -- that's what you say about someone who shows up regularly on the New Yotk Post's Page Six. That's Trump's main measure of significance. To Trump, Washington, Lincoln, King, Douglass, Tubman, and Parks are just boldface names. And he wants to be America's greatest boldface name ever. It's why he first thought about running for president forty years ago.

DEMOCRATS SHOULD TRY LANDING THE FIRST PUNCH

Here's an important difference between our two major parties, according to Brian Beutler:

... Republicans exploit media aggressively, at every juncture, to smear, savage, and blame their opponents, while Democrats tend to steer away from collective character attacks....To use less fancy language, Republicans say Democrats are shitty people; Democrats don’t return the favor.

[Republicans] place themselves in the shoes of lower-information voters, try to see the world from their perspective, and then ask: How can I make people like this develop a low opinion of Democrats? How can I instill hatred in them?

Paul Waldman agrees:

[Republicans] work every day to convince voters that they should distrust, resent, and despise Democrats, irrespective of what those voters might think about any policy issue or turn of events.

Waldman notes that this appears to be an ideal moment for Democrats to try to win over Americans who've been voting Republican but now think the country is going in the wrong direction. But Waldman doesn't agree with the approach recommended by centrist Democrats:

The professional centrists in the Democratic Party look at a moment like this one and say “Now those moderate voters will finally be open to our apology! We can go to them and say ‘We know you think we suck, and you’re right, we do suck, but we’re going to try to do better.’”

He's right. That's a terrible message. In broad outline, I agree with what Waldman recommends instead:

... Democrats have been lectured endlessly about how they need to apologize and listen to Trump voters so that they might make them feel more warmly toward Democrats, while barely anyone acknowledges how absolutely vital it is that they work to change how these voters feel about Republicans.

But I don't think this is the right approach:

... at least part of the solution has to be for Democrats to say the following to everyone who voted for Trump and is now feeling glimmers of doubt, wherever they live:

Republicans think you’re stupid.

Not “You’re stupid for voting for Republicans,” but “Republicans think you’re stupid.” Which they absolutely do. They tell you that tax cuts for the rich will help you. They tell you when they lose it’s because of voter fraud. Trump tells you rising prices aren’t real, and this is a “golden age,” and that immigrants are the source of your problems, and that liberal protesters are all paid, and that we already won the Iran war, and that he cares about you. They pick your pocket and laugh at you behind your back.

Trump thinks you’re stupid, and so do all the other Republicans you elect, the ones who don’t do a damn thing to improve your community and then come around every four years and say you should be angry about a trans middle schooler playing softball or some other story they came up with so you won’t hold them responsible for what they’ve done.

This approach touches on some terrible things Republicans are doing, but it's rooted in a professional politico's worldview. Waldman is recommending that Democrats describe to voters how the Republican approach to politics works on them. I'd skip over the part where Democrats say, Look at how Republicans are manipulating you into supporting their policies, which are fucking awful, and go straight to: Republican policies are fucking awful. I'd say, This is what they're focused on when you can't afford to buy a home or buy gas. Maybe I'd say that Republicans always try to distract you with issues like DEI and trans athletes that have nothing to do with your life. But the issue isn't Republicans are showing you disrespect. It's Republicans make your life worse.

Beutler looks at Republican attack politics -- for instance, on James Talarico's support for trans people. Beutler notes, for instance, that "Texas Republicans are running an A.I. generated ad that depicts James Talarico wearing a dress, singing a song about how much he loves transing children." The ad, by the way, is quite nasty:

NEW: The Trump-aligned org Citizens for Sanity is dropping a six-figure ad buy in the Texas Senate race.

The ad is a 15 second clip of AI-generated James Talarico singing a "trans kids" rendition of “Favorite Things."

Obtained first by @DailyCaller: pic.twitter.com/JNY8vxYueG

— Reagan Reese (@reaganreese_) June 9, 2026

Beutler disagrees with the standard Democratic response to attacks like this ("Ignore the smears, and race to higher terrain"). So do I. But I don't like his alternative:

[Democrats] could try to make Republican deception a liability in itself. I don’t mean correcting the record. I don’t mean citing fact-checkers. I mean telling stories about how today’s GOP professional class is defined by putrid, morally corrosive dishonesty.

Sorry, but that's way too meta. It's about the business of politics, which is of interest to people like Brian Beutler (and me), but not to normie voters.

Also, Democrats tried this once and it was an utter failure. In 1988, when the Willie Horton ad and other pro-George Bush attack ads were doing tremendous damage to Michael Dukakis's presidential campaign, Dukakis responded with a series of ads called "The Packaging of George Bush." The ads were a flop.

Singled out for particular criticism is Dukakis’ elaborate series of ads called “The Packaging of George Bush,” in which a group of political handlers is depicted discussing strategy--an attempt to make political hay out of the perception that Bush is a carefully managed candidate.

“An utter waste of money,” [politcal science professor Larry] Sabato said flatly. “They are too subtle, and they land with a thud because they tell voters what voters have always known, that they are being manipulated. The problem is that most voters believe they are manipulated by both sides, which they are.”

I've cued up one of the ads below.



It's astonishing that Democrats thought Republican slicksters are manipulating you with TV ads would be an effective counterweight to Vote for the Democrat and scary Black men will brutalize you and your family.

*****

What's my alternative?

First, Democrats need to stop hating themselves. Roughly 60% of Americans despise what's happening in America on Republicans' watch. Disgruntled Democrats and independents are normal; people who still support Trump are the weirdos. Democrats should talk about Republican ideas -- never raise the minimum wage, let AI and crypto billionaires do whatever they want, cut needed domestic programs while starting expensive and pointless foreign wars and giving more tax cuts to the rich, attack abortion, ban books -- as if they're obviously wrong. Democrats shouldn't focus on what they should say (or not say) in response to Republican attacks -- they should go on offense, launching attacks of their own, trying to land the first punch.

Beutler dismisses the idea that Texas Democrats should "start making AI-generated ads depicting Ken Paxton’s actual sins and crimes." But what if they'd done that first? What if they were the first ones out of the gate with an ad that used ridicule to attack their opponent's vulnerability? What if they set the terms of the debate?

(Whatever you think of Graham Platner, he's trying to do this, tying Susan Collins to the closure of rural hospitals and, through her support of Brett Kavanaugh, to the end of Roe v. Wade. Even with all his baggage, he might actually succeed in making that race a referendum on Republicans rather than himself.)

I think Democrats should attack long-standing Republican policies that are unpopular, specific Trump policies on important issues that are rejected by voters (the war in Iran, the tariffs), while also portraying the Republican Party as weird and ridiculous. Trump gives them many openings -- Greenland! The ballroom! -- and so do Republicans who treat Trump like a demigod. See, for instance, Texas congressman Troy Nehls:

Texas Republican Rep. Troy Nehls outdid his colleagues in heaping praise on Donald Trump with reporters on Thursday....

"Donald Trump is the best thing to happen in this country in 100 years," he insisted. "He was born, he was born a very special baby."

"I bet you the doctor said, I can tell this is a very special baby, right?" he added.

Run against the party that talks this way! They're weird!

Whenever a Republican does something that normal people would find either immoral or laughable, it's an opportunity for Democrats. Attack. Attack. Attack.

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT THE GOP'S CALIFORNIA ELECTION CONSPIRACY THEORIES

It's clear that the Trump Justice Department wants to charge somebody with election fraud in connection with the California primaries. It's also clear what the nature of the charges might be, as I'll explain below.

Anyone who pays attention to the right-wing noise machine could tell you what the Feds are likely to say about California. But Devlin Barrett of The New York Times, like most mainstream media journalists, appears to have no idea what the right is alleging. He seems baffled by the Justice Department's promises of future indictments, and appears much more concerned with how the Trump Justice Department is violating pre-Trump norms.

Speaking to a conservative radio host on Monday, the top federal prosecutor in Los Angeles made an unusually pointed prediction that cast doubt on the results of California’s primary races, even as votes were still being counted.

“We will be charging some people,” the prosecutor, Bill Essayli, told the host, Glenn Beck, delivering a promise that would most likely have been considered a violation of Justice Department policy under decades of past practice. “It will be election fraud charges in the next — I hate to put timelines on things — one or two months I believe. We need some of these results to be certified so we can prove some of the allegations.”

Barrett quotes an expert who assumes that Essayli and the Justice Department have got nothing:

The administration is “throwing everything against the wall that they can find, and nothing is sticking,” said David Becker, a former voting rights lawyer at the Justice Department who is now the executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research.

“Almost all of their work is going back over conspiracy theorists’ allegations that were debunked five years ago,” he added. “They are running out of tools in their toolbox.”

But I think I know what Essayli has in mind, and Barrett should know, too, because it's right there in the New York Post.

First, there was this Post story, on Tuesday morning.

Thousands of homeless voters were registered to vote at LA shelters — despite many not living there or the facilities not having any beds.

And as Spencer Pratt was eliminated by Nithya Raman in the mayor’s race on Monday night, it can be revealed that one drop-in center that received $600,000 from the socialist candidate had 185 registered voters at the address but offers no accommodations.

The revelations have prompted US Attorney Bill Essayli to say he will investigate the concerns uncovered by The Post and “follow the evidence” to see if the law has been broken.

A review of records shows 7,600 voters tied to homeless shelters and service providers.

As far as I can tell, California registers homeless people at shelters because it believes homeless people are citizens who deserve the right to vote just like the rest of us, and because if they're going to be registered, they need to be registered at some address. I understand why critics of this policy might believe it's ripe for abuse, but the potential for abuse is not proof of abuse. Also, it's appropriate for city council members to try to obtain funding for social service providers.

And as for that suspicious-seeming "7,600 voters," I'll remind you that Raman now leads Pratt by nearly 30,000 votes.

But there's more. On Tuesday evening, the Post reported this:

A series of shocking videos show homeless residents on Los Angeles’ Skid Row claiming they were paid to vote for Mayor Karen Bass and councilwoman Nithya Raman....

The footage, recorded near 7th Street and Flower Street in downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday morning, has since been provided to the Department of Justice.

The clips were posted by a TikTok account called laneedsspencerpratt. They were also promoted on Twitter:

The video on X shared by @WallStreetApes has amassed nearly 700,000 views with over 1,000 comments from users.

(In April, Nate Silver reported that Wall Street Apes was the Twitter account with the ninth-highest engagement rate.)

The Post produced a convenient supercut:



This story apparently proved so popular that a follow-up appeared yesterday in the Post:

Homeless people living on LA’s Skid Row claimed they’d been told to sign multiple registration forms, forge signatures and offered cash to fill out voter information by people working for “political partners.”

A series of videos published Thursday by TheVoiceofLA, an Instagram account known for interviews on Skid Row — the center of Los Angeles’ largest homeless community — laid out the shocking allegations.

TheVoiceofLA actually appears to be a Spencer Pratt fan account, for what it's worth.

How plausible are these claims? Not very:



The first woman claims she's asked to fill out and sign multiple ballots, but she doesn't seem to know what story she's supposed to tell.

INTERVIEWER: So, and they get you to vote for the same person.

HOMELESS WOMAN #1: No, they want us to vote for whatever the ballot is.

What does that even mean?

The second woman makes even less sense:

INTERVIEWER: ... you get "Sign these petitions, sign this ballot."

HOMELESS WOMAN #2: Yeah. Do this. And I've been, I've been propositioned with bank fraud, phone fraud, voter fraud, um, PayPal fraud, you name it. They've came at me every [bleep]ing which way down here. There ain't no end to the fraud down here.

She might be describing the tactics of people circulating petitions to get initiatives on the ballot, but she certainly doesn't seem to be describing anything to do with the mayoral election.

Maybe all these people are telling the truth. Maybe they've been paid to vote. Or perhaps they've been paid to say they've been paid to vote.

*****

I've believed for many years that the manistream media should look at stories like this that spread virally on the right and take them seriously -- seriously, but skeptically. Over and over again, right-wingers have concocted pseudo-scandals that were ignored by the mainstream press. ACORN. The so-called Ground Zero mosque. "Weaponization" of the IRS against right-wing non-profits. Right-wingers get worked up while the mainstream media looks the other way, which means that all the coverage of these stories has a right-wing bias. By the time the mainstream press wakes up and weighs in, much of the country believes the right-wing/GOP version of events, even if the truth doesn't match the GOP narrative.

I think non-right-wing journalists should look into this series of claims. Is there any evidence that the registrations mentioned in the first Post story are illegal or fraudulent? Is there any evidence that these people who claim to have been paid to vote actually were?

If, as I suspect, the claims are false, that's a story: the right is spreading fraudulent claims of fraud.

Yes, I know: the mainstream press might assume that agents of the Republican Party like the New York Post are operating in good faith. There's a risk that mainstream journalists will fall for the fake news.

But I'm imagining a better world, a world where the press is on to the GOP's bullshit, and catches Republicans in the act of spreading falsehoods before those falsehoods become a narrative even middle-of-the-road voters believe -- especially now, when the federal government wants to put political enemies in prison based on right-wing narratives alone.