A Post poll shortly after the strikes began found 39 percent supported “President Trump ordering airstrikes against Iran,” while 52 percent opposed them and 9 percent were unsure. The new poll asked generally about the “U.S. military campaign against Iran,” finding 42 percent support it, 40 percent oppose it, and 17 percent are unsure.The Post acknowledges that question wording might be responsible for the decrease in opposition.
The absence of President Donald Trump in the new poll’s question may have led more people to say they are “unsure,” as views about the president tend to color people’s opinions of his actions and policies.But there's movement in Trump's direction on a question that's worded identically in the previous and current polls:
Democratic support increased from 4% to 9%, independent support from 16% to 27%, and Republican support from 54% to 66%.
It's just one poll, obviously. But if we start seeing similar results in other polls, it's a sign of how voters are responding to President Trump's war salesmanship -- or lack of it.
The old template for selling a war was what the Bush administration did before invading Iraq: The president and his surrogates warned of a dire threat for months, offered what they said was solid evidence that the threat was real, and whispered to influential reporters that the situation was perilous. As a result, the attack on Iraq initially had broad support, although it obviously declined over time.
Before attacking Iran, Trump did no selling, and he hasn't done a very good sales job since the initial bombing. (According to the new Post poll, only 35% of respondents think Trump has adequately explained the reasons for the war, while 65% don't think he has.) So if this poll is correct, what's happening?
I think Americans are just getting used to the war.
This is Trump's M.O., especially in the second term: just do stuff, never apologize, never explain, never express doubts ... and wait for Americans to realize that it's happening whether they like it or not. Consciously or unconsciously, Trump simply expects everyone to become accustomed to what he's doing. It's a variation on the old saying "It's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission," except that Trump never asks for forgiveness. He just assumes that he can wear everyone down.
This approach isn't unique to Trump. Scott Walker followed it in 2011 shortly after he was sworn in as governor of Wisconsin: He and Republicans in the state legislature rammed through a bill that
ended most collective bargaining rights for public employee labor unions.... The law also made it much more difficult to certify and maintain a public employee union, and made it more difficult for unions to collect dues from members.... The legislation also adjusted the public employee retirement system to shift the burden of contributions more onto employees, adjusted public employee health insurance plans to cap employer contributions, made it easier to fire employees who engaged in work stoppages or strikes, and enabled changes to state Medicaid programs.There were massive protests at the state capitol. Walker's opponents gathered enough support to subject him to a recall election. But he survived that, and was subsequently reelected. He'd worn down the opposition.
This is not how Democrats usually operate. They fear criticism, and they have trouble getting the cooperation of centrists in their caucus. In 2021 and 2022, for instance, they could have expanded the Supreme Court. They could have given statehood to D.C. and Puerto Rico. Republicans and many centrists would have howled -- but the correct response to criticism would have been just to keep going. Eventually, the public would have shrugged and accepted the changes.
If Democrats ever control the White House and both houses of Congress again, they need to just do stuff. They need to accept the fact that some of it will be met by skepticism and anger. But once it's done, it will no longer seem unthinkable.
