Bouie says:
It’s very strange. I guess I’ve never really seen anything like it in American politics. Just an administration, a set of people, who have no real ability to just conceptualize what their political opponents, or their foreign enemies, might want to do of their own accord. It’s like they really do not believe that other people have independent action.French says:
One of the reasons they look at the Venezuela situation, and they keep going back to that, is that it’s probably their most successful version of this, that Venezuelan intervention. But you go again and again, and you see the same pattern: “We have to pummel people harder.” And that works with Republican members of Congress, for example, but it doesn’t tend to work with other sovereign nations. Other sovereign nations don’t like to be pummeled. And so, what they’ll do is they’ll find a way to stop or prevent the pummeling, and it’s not always the way you want.I agree that Trump thought he could simply hit Iran as hard as possible and force a surrender, which is how he saw his assault on Venezuela. But "Use overwhelming force and you'll win" has been a successful strategy throughout his political career, at least until recently.
So, for example, if you’re trying to torment Canada, well, you can’t go crying if Canada says, “We’re going to forge a closer economic relationship with China and Europe than with the U.S., because we have self-preservation interests.” No. They keep thinking, if we pummel, then we’ll achieve the results that we want, when sometimes pummeling has the exact opposite effect. What it typically does is alienate people at scale.
Remember that Trump was a success as a real estate developer, but was a failure after that. Then he had a mixed record as a famous person slapping his name on products. Then he became a TV star and had a show that was a hit, but after a few years it was less and less of a hit.
Politics is the only area in which Trump has failed (he always fails) and then returned to the top of the heap. Which doesn't speak well for politics. There's something wrong with any field that would allow Trump to dominate it twice.
Trump overwhelmed his enemies in 2015 and 2016. His primary opponents were too polite to get into the bare-knuckle brawl that might have beaten him, or to fight him strategically (for instance, with campaign withdrawals that might have cleared the field for a strong opponent). Also, Fox News and the rest of the right-wing media had pushed a coarse, pro-wrestling view of politics for so many years that Republican primary voters were eager for a hatemongering brawler.
Trump's general-election opponent had been pummeled by both the right-wing and mainstream media for years. That's why he was able to win an Electoral College victory.
Trump survived the Mueller report and an impeachment the same way he won the election: He was loud and crude, and the right-wing press defended him more forcefully than the Democratic Party and the rest of the media attacked him.
He lost the 2020 election, though the margins in the swing states were close. He was impeached again and he survived a second time. And then he was given room to mount a comeback. The legal cases against him were built too slowly. His 2024 primary opponents weren't able to kick him when he was down. He defeated a weakened Democratic Party.
To sum up: The political system never gave Trump the thrashing he deserved. Democrats and Republican critics fought too politely. The non-GOP media thought he was the true voice of the Volk and was far more willing to punch "wokeness" than Trump.
So Trump got used to the idea that the enemy doesn't have agency because for years his enemies did a piss-poor job of using their agency.
Until Chris Van Hollen pushed back on the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Until Canada put its elbows up with regard to tariffs and "51st state" talk. Until Greenland and Denmark pushed back on annexation. Until anti-ICE protesters pushed back in Minneapolis and elsewhere.
But there were still enemies who chose not to use their agency: big law firms, elite universities, members of Congress in both parties, Democratic consultants, op-ed writers who still obsessed over "wokeness" while demanding that Democrats throw trans people under the bus.
Trump thought they were the rule and the few determined resisters were the exception. He still thought he could work his will pretty much anywhere in the world he pleased. And now we're in a quagmire in Iran.
