Should Republicans Have Won in a Landslide?Cohn writes:
The question of whether Donald Trump cost conservatives a more decisive victory is a useful one to consider.
Should Republicans have won the 2024 election by a much wider margin?The "vibe shift" was an invention of pundits, because the voters who turned out in increasing numbers for Republicans (men of all ethnicities) were considered zeitgeisty and the voters who turned out in large numbers for Democrats (mostly women, especially women of color) were considered not cool at all.
While the history books will rightfully dwell on whether Democrats could have forestalled another Trump presidency, the question of whether Mr. Trump cost conservatives a more decisive victory might be the more useful one to understand American politics today.
Voters wanted change, badly. They were repelled not just by Mr. Biden’s faltering condition, but also by rising prices and perceived failures of Democratic governance on everything from immigration to energy. While it didn’t yield a more decisive Republican victory, the backlash against pandemic-era restrictions, rising prices and “woke” all help explain why a close election felt like a conservative “vibe shift.”
Cohn makes much of the fact that early polling revealed Democratic vulnerabilities. He cites a November 2023 Times poll of six battleground states. In this poll, Nikki Haley was beating Biden 46%-38%, while Ron DeSantis was in an effective tie with Biden, leading him 44%-43%. (Biden led Donald Trump 48%-40%; Trump led Kamala Harris 47%-44%.)
Haley probably would have been the strongest candidate against either Biden or Harris. But the actually existing Republican Party would never have nominated Haley, because she wasn't perceived as a Fox News culture warrior and bombthrower. Similarly, polls in early 2016 showed John Kasich with a large lead over Hillary Clinton -- 7.4 points, according to Real Clear Politics. I think Kasich might have won a far more decisive victory than Trump, but like Haley, he had a reputation (deserved or otherwise) for moderation and conciliation, so there wasn't a chance in hell that his party would nominate him.
The Republican Party has nominated an extremist presidential candidate three times in a row, and pushed somewhat less extreme candidates to the right in the two previous election cycles. (Surely you recall John McCain repudiating his own immigration bill and Mitt Romney rejecting the healthcare law he signed as governor of Massachusetts.)
Meanwhile, CNN is selling a new poll as more bad news for the Democrats:
There’s new evidence that the Democratic Party’s reputation is in a bad place.Well, obviously we feel this way -- our leaders aren't strong. But that may not say anything about future voting intent, as I'll explain soon.
... a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS provides insights into the party’s problems.
... Perhaps most striking was that people were more likely to view the Republicans than Democrats as the party with strong leaders (40% to 16%) and even the “party of change” (32% to 25%).
... The “strong leaders” question might be the most troublesome finding for Democrats. Only about 1 in 6 Americans said Democrats have stronger leaders than Republicans. As remarkably, only 39% of Democrats said that.
In an additional CNN write-up of this poll, it becomes clear that there's disenchantment with both parties.
Neither the Republican nor the Democratic Party has consolidated a majority of the public behind its approach, with more than 4 in 10 saying that neither party can get things done or has strong leadership, a new CNN survey conducted by SSRS finds.Republicans are seen as having strong leaders and the ability to effect change, but Americans don't seem thrilled with the change they're getting.
Asked to choose which of the parties they see as the “party that can get things done,” “the party with strong leaders” or the “party of change,” the lion’s share of the public – more than 4 in 10 – say that neither party fits the bill.
... True independents, those who don’t lean toward either party, are particularly grim in their views of the parties on these issues: 76% say neither party has strong leaders or can get things done, and 72% that they view neither as the party of change.
... While the public as a whole sees the GOP as relatively effective, they also say, 41% to 30%, that it’s better described as the party of extremism.
... Americans are closely split on which party represents the middle class, with a third saying neither does.
And where does this leave Democrats, assuming there are future elections? According to Brendan Higgins at The Smoke Filled Room, it leaves them on track to win a 231-204 House majority. That's based on polling showing Democrats with an average 4-point lead on the "generic ballot" question. That average is skewed by one poll showing Democrats up by more than 9 points, but the poll is from AtlasIntel, one of two firms given an A+ rating by Nate Silver.
I think there are many voters who want to vote for a Democratic Party that isn't ground down by GOP attacks, media contempt, and its own timidity. In elections, or at least non-presidential elections, Democratic candidates stick up for themselves, advance good ideas, and denounce Republican policies -- and often they win, or at least exceed expectations. Even as we're seeing the Democrats-are-doomed messaging in the media, we're also seeing poll results like this:
This poll was conducted before Ernst's "We are all going to die" remark and obnoxious follow-up.
Take it with a grain of salt -- it's from a liberal polling firm working for Sage, and the big caveat is that Sage took the lead only after biographies of the candidates were read. Click to enlarge this if you want to see what respondents were told about Ernst, Sage, and other Democrats who might challenge Ernst (one, J.D. Scholten, just entered the race):
The Ernst bio is positive, but the two versions of Sage's bio are very appealing. One says:
Born and raised in a trailer park in Mason City, Sage enlisted in the Marines, served two tours in Iraq, then re-enlisted in the Army and served a third tour in Iraq. Back home, he put himself through college with the GI Bill and worked as a mechanic, a sports radio host, and eventually became Director at an Iowa radio station, working closely with local businesses. He's now the director of his local Chamber of Commerce as a voice for Iowa small businesses and working people.The other says he "actually cares about working people" and describes him as "a patriot, not a politician."
But in a real campaign, Democrats can't control the messaging, which is why, in a red state, it'll be a struggle for Sage or any other Democrat to win. But a Democrat who could be perceived this way throughout a campaign could appeal to committed Democrats as well as swing voters. There's an opening.
However, Democrats need to a better job of defining themselves positively and counteracting the negative impression created by Republicans, the media, and some fellow Democrats. The country hasn't moved to the right -- Republicans have simply done a better job of ensuring that the media environment downplays their flaws and allows them to claim virtues. And that might be breaking down as the reality of GOP rule becomes more obvious. So Democrats aren't doomed -- but they need to define themselves before their enemies can define them. And they need to do a better job of persuading swing voters that Republicans aren't on their side.