Monday, June 04, 2012


In isolation, this seems like pretty good news for Mitt Romney:

Mitt Romney's favorable ratings are on the rise....

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Monday, Romney's favorable rating among Americans has jumped from 34% in February, during the heat of the divisive GOP presidential primaries, to 48% now....

This will be spun as a sign that Romney is doing everything right and that President Obama is struggling. But -- as Gallup noted when Romney showed a similar favorability gain in its survey -- candidates generally have favorability spikes after winning nominations ... and John McCain's spike took him to a much higher rating in '08:

Fifty percent of Americans now have a favorable opinion of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, up from 39% in February and his highest by 10 percentage points....

The spike in Romney's favorable rating in the May 10-13
USA Today/Gallup poll is predictable, given that he has become the presumptive Republican nominee. Presidential candidates typically get a spike in their favorable ratings in the wake of winning the nomination....

Click on that last link and you see that, while Romney got to 50% favorability after winning the nomination, McCain got to 67%.

And, um, McCain lost.

But the new poll of Romney's favorability is from CNN. How did McCain do in CNN's polls in '08? Let's check: McCain was at 59% in late June of '08, at 62% in late July, at 61% in late August, and at 59% in September and October. So Romney, at 48% now, is way behind the Republican who lost four years ago, according to CNN.

And he's way behind Obama now -- Obama's at 56% favorable.


Victor said...

Where's the real Steve M?

And what have you done to him, optimistic, pod-person Steve M?

(The real Steve M - if you can read this, whistle!).

Whistle louder!!!

I don't hear me no whistling...

RIP, real Steve M. ;-)

Steve M. said...

Well, I'm still pessimistic (about the MSM's ability to put the improved Romney numbers in context).

Victor said...

Oh good, you're back!

Optimism doesn't suit you, Steve.

But then, it doesn't exactly suit me either.