Friday, November 04, 2011


On Monday I said that Herman Cain might survive the sex harassment story, and now it seems I was too cautious

Businessman Herman Cain and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are running nearly even atop the field of 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows, with most Republicans dismissing the harassment allegations that over the past week have roiled Cain's campaign.

Seven in 10 Republicans say reports that Cain made unwanted advances toward two employees when he was head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s ... do not matter when it comes to picking a candidate....

At 23 percent nationally, Cain is neck-and-neck with Romney (24 percent) atop the GOP field.

However, there is this:

But the potential threat to his burgeoning campaign is evident as well, with Cain slipping to third place among those who see the charges as serious....

Although Republican men and women have similar views about whether the allegations against Cain represent a serious matter, GOP women are about twice as likely as men to say the whole situation makes them less apt to vote for Cain (25 to 12 percent).

Now, look at the new Rasmussen poll. I assume Rasmussen polls oversample wingnuts, which is why I don't take seriously any Rasmussen poll of the populace at large -- but a Rasmussen poll of the GOP might be fairly accurate, right? And Rasmussen has Cain leading Romney, 26% to 23%. They were tied in the last Rasmussen poll. So Cain is gaining -- right?

Well, yes and no. Here are the new and old Rasmussen numbers:

* NEW (11/2 poll): Cain 26%, Romney 23%, Gingrich 14%, Perry 8%, Paul 7%, Bachmann 2%, Huntsman 2%, Santorum 1%
* OLD (10/12 poll): Cain 29%, Romney 29%, Gingrich 10%, Perry 9%, Paul 5%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 2%, Santorum 2%

Cain and Romney are both down, as are Perry and Bachmann. Gingrich is up. Paul is up a bit. But these eight candidates now get 83% of the vote, as opposed to 90% a few weeks ago.

So maybe Cain is losing a little steam because of this scandal -- but Rasmussen says Romney isn't gaining as a result. Nor is anyone else except Gingrich and Paul, and evenm then, there's no surge.

On the other hand, maybe Rasmussen isn't accurate for the GOP -- maybe it's accurate for the crazy base of the GOP, but not for the old-fashioned Republicans who (according to Dave Weigel) are getting more and more acclimated to the notion of Romney as nominee.

Either way, I think the crazy base is clearly not ready to embrace Romney. You could even read the Rasmussen numbers as a suggestion that some of them are rejecting Cain because of the scandal but more of them are reacting to the scandal by saying, "Eeeuuuw! Not Romney!"

So I still say their lust for craziness will send them into the arms of somewhere other than Romney, until there literally is no alternative (and maybe not even then).


c u n d gulag said...

Well, since it's probably unlikely that Family Court of Law Judge in TX who beat the living shit out of his handicapped daughter with a leather belt will keep his job,* maybe someone could put up a nice, law & order family man up like him to run?

Oh, wait, his wife's divorcing him?

Well, divorce was a problem up until Reagan, so I don't see that, or beating up your disabled daughter as impediments that can't be overcome.
Beating a child into submission is a good Christian virtue.

"Judge William Adams for President! He'll put this kind of ass-whuppin' on Obama - and the rest of them DAMN Liberals, Democrats, and their Godless supporters. LITERALLY!!!"

When's Manson's next parole hearing?

*Though, in Texas, this might get him onto the State Supreme Court. And he may end up on Perry's short list for the nations SCOTUS if he wins in 2012 .

ploeg said...

The Romney and Gingrich changes are the only changes that are greater than the margin of error (+/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence). Take that as you will.

At this point, you have a hard cap in support for any candidate. Partly it's because the top candidate at any time is going to take a beating from the other candidates. Partly it's because all of this seems to be driven by hype from Fox News. Mainly it's because you haven't had a real contest yet and you don't know whether any of these people can get their supporters to the polls.

A lot of what happens will depend upon how many candidates think that they still have a shot after Super Tuesday. What could very well happen is that Mitt holds up well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but Cain and Perry split the south between them. From the beginning of April, we have a bunch of winner-take-all contests, and if Cain and Perry both stay in the race, Romney cleans up. Of course, Cain or Perry could drop out at some point and the one could throw support to the other, which would mean real trouble for Romney. But don't count out somebody who's been through the process before and who knows the rules.

The New York Crank said...

Don't let Cain and Perry drop out! What would I watch for entertainment, The Biggest Loser reruns?

The more batshit crazy Republicans in the race, the better. And if one of them gets the nomination instead of Romney, we Dems are in better shape come the Presidential elections.

Somebody feed all those boys on the Republican right some more red meat. Hey, and be sure not to cook it.

Yours crankily,
The New York Crank

Steve M. said...

I think Perry is in the process of following Bachmann into Buddy Roemer territory.

Sexually harass women? Don't know China has had nukes for nearly half a century? No problem!

Oppose a border fence? Give in-state tuition to undiocumented kids? Bzzzzt! Thanks for playing!

c u n d gulag said...

2012 - Brokered convention?

Result - Jeb Bush/Paul Ryan ticket!

Bush/Ryan pisses of the Liberals, and makes Conservative finance/religious/teabagger wings happy.
Sell Jeb as the anti-W Bush to Independents. More like Jeb = Good Ol' Poppy Jr. - and hope everyone's forgotten that the Old Man was, for the Liberals - an out of touch patrician cipher, and for Conservatives, a two-timing lier who raised taxes.

Luntz will be called to message.

The MSM/PunTWITocracy will fall behind Jeb/Ryan as a "Serious Solution!" A "Thinking Man's Duo!"

And the same sales team that made the public buy Gulf Wars I & II, will be brought it to start spinning for all they're worth.

The 2012 Repbulican ticket:
Jeb Bush/Paul Ryan!

'Nuff said!

ploeg said...

The Smarter Bush® will be 63 in 2016. 63 is a good age to run for POTUS.