By now you've probably heard this about the CBS and McClatchy GOP polls:
Cain's dip seems to be primarily the result of defections from female supporters. In the last CBS poll, which was released Oct. 25, he actually enjoyed more support from women (28 percent) than from men (22 percent) and led the GOP pack with 25 percent. But now, after more than a week of intense news coverage of sexual harassment allegations, only 15 percent of female GOP voters say Cain is their top choice, while 21 percent of men are still with him.
But I don't know how much that'll hurt Cain in Iowa -- see this analysis of 2008 Iowa caucus demographics:
I can't make the numbers pop up in a screen capture on this computer, but the turnout was 56% male, 44% female. And we're told that's typical for Iowa.
So if women are fleeing Cain, and Iowa Republicans are like the Republicans in the country as a whole, Cain may not be troubled much (or at least Romney may not benefit). And nationally at least, according to the CBS poll (PDF), Romney is now third among men, and a distant third among conservatives and teabaggers (Iowa Republican caucus-goers are reputed to be very, very conservative):
I know all this overlooks issues of organization, local sentiment, et cetera. I'm just saying that the groups nationwide that are sticking with Cain (or switching to Gingrich) are the groups that seem to dominate in Iowa. So the expected coronation may not take place on time.
