Tuesday, October 21, 2008


Remember last week, when Matt Drudge took one possible interpretation of Gallup's tracking-poll data and declared that Obama and McCain were in a two-point race, then left the big red headline up for an entire day?

Well, yes Gallup does have three different poll interpretations these days -- and one of them did show a two-point race.

Now, by that same measure, Gallup says it's a seven-point race.

This year, that's the least believable of Gallup's models -- likely voters "based on current voting intentions and past voting behavior." It's clear that a lot of people are absolutely determined to vote this year whose "past voting behavior" doesn't include consistent voting. A "likely voter" model "based on current voting intentions only" shows Obama with an eleven-point lead. Among registered voters, he has a ten-point lead.

It's all good news. Sorry, Matt.

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