WARREN SURGES LIKE A REPUBLICAN
I thought Elizabeth Warren's Senate campaign in Massachusetts was doomed, but it's just the opposite:
Elizabeth Warren is largely unscathed by the weeks-long controversy surrounding her ancestry, according to a new Suffolk University poll released Wednesday evening.
Unscathed? She's not unscathed -- she's gaining, big time:
The survey shows the Massachusetts Democrat trailing GOP Sen. Scott Brown by a single percentage point, with Brown netting 48 percent to Warren's 47 percent. The result marks a measurable shift toward Warren since the last Suffolk poll in February, which had Brown up 9 points, 49 percent to 40 percent.
... Since then, Warren has been ensnared in a round of unflattering stories questioning the credibility of her claim that she is 1/32 Cherokee.
Is it too much to argue that that attack is actually helping her?
A plurality of those polled -- 49 percent -- believe Warren is telling the truth about being part Native American. Just 28 percent said she was not being honest while 23 percent weren't sure.
A plurality of 45 percent also believe she did not benefit by listing herself as a minority at Harvard or the University of Pennsylvania, where she also taught.
More than two-thirds of voters -- 69 percent -- said Warren's Native American heritage listing is not a significant story, with just 27 percent saying it is.
You know how this would work if the parties were reversed, don't you? If an attack like this were launched against a Republican, we'd spend half a day talking about the charges ... and then two weeks responding to cries of "media bias!" from the right-wing noise machine. By Day Three at the latest, the press would start beating itself up for running the story at all. We'd spend all our time talking about the characteristic viciousness of the win-at-any-cost Democrats and the shameful collusion of the scandal-mongering liberal media. We'd forget about the charges altogether.
Shortly afterward, polls would show that the public was shrugging off the charges ... which, somehow, is what's happening to Warren, even without a noise machine. I don't know how that happened. Maybe the public is genuinely unimpressed by stories like this that don't seem relevant to job performance. Maybe a lot of voters have family stories about interesting forbears that they know may or may not be true.
But the poll also says that Obama leads Romney in the state by 25 points. So why is Warren only tied with Brown? A couple of problems:
Warren's greatest strength? 49% of likely voters say she'll represent middle class families better than Brown.
His biggest asset? 47% of likely voters say he'll be more independent than Warren.
... a key finding that could boost Brown: 56% believe Massachusetts would benefit by having one Democrat and one Republican in the Senate...38% say no.
Damn blue-staters. In the red states, voters vote for Republicans. In Democratic states, voters want to be reasonable. And that's how the GOP winds up controlling everything. That's why we can't have nice things.
*****
AND: Warren's favorables are going up, though so are her unfavorables:
Warren's favorability rating has risen 8 points since February, to 43 percent, although her unfavorable rating has also increased 5 points, to 33 percent, perhaps reflecting Brown’s attempts to portray her as an elitist.
But:
Brown, who has worked hard to burnish his everyman image, is viewed more positively than Warren.
Fifty-eight percent of voters said they view him favorably, up 6 points from February, while 28 percent said they view him unfavorably.
Niceness: once you can fake that, you can get away with anything.
