Wednesday, May 29, 2013


You probably didn't dig into the numbers (PDF) of that Marist poll howing Anthony Weiner within 5 points of front-runner Christine Quinn. That headline number is somewhat shocking, and suggests that Weiner needs to be taken seriously. (Yes, if no candidate gets 40% in he primary and there's a Quinn-Weiner runoff, Quinn defeats him by 15 points -- but I think if he just gets to a runoff he might start seeming credible to people who are now wary of him, and the results could be closer.) But there's another set of numbers tht surprises me.

Quinn's approval rating among African-American voters is 64%. Among Latino voters, it's 60%. Among whites, it's only 53%. And in a runoff against Weiner, Quinn does best among Latino voters (53%-37%, as opposed to 46%-31% among whites, although it's a tighter race -- 44%-35% -- among African-Americans).

Quinn has been out as a lesbian for years. Non-white voters are supposed to be too "culturally conservative" to be comfortable with gay people, but that's not what these numbers suggest.

We'll see if this holds up. For now, though, it suggests that some of our preconceptions might need adjusting.


Victor said...

Jayzoos, I'd rather have a 4th term for Bloomie, than have that smug prick(-flashing), cock-of-the-walk win, and be Mayor.

So, let's hope that our preconceptions ARE wrong.

Ten Bears said...

You're doin' the Zionists' dirty work. Not that I disagree, I think we have enough foreign influence in government thank you very much and would far rather see a lesbian in that seat than Israeli. But the Israelis don't want see him there anymore than I do - he questions their authority, challenges the existing paradime... he rocks their boat.

Hence the misleading polling.

No fear.

aimai said...

I think that a lot of cultural anti-gay stuff is quite male specific--that is, a rejection of male homosexuality not particularly homosexuality. Lesbians are often perceived as asexual/unthreatening/businesslike and, to the extent that they are folded into a hierarchy which ranks men high and women low they are seen as rather obviously some sort of honorary male. Meanwhile "out" gay men, especially the imagined flamboyant ones, are seen as challenging masculine supremacy and hieararchy as well as gender bending in some pretty scary ways.
I'm not at all surprised that lesbianism doesnt really register as an issue. She's a challenge to homophobia in the same way that Indira gandhi was a challenge to an indian cultural tradition of patriarchy: in other words not at all. She's just an honorary male or even, because of her whiteness and her role in politics, just an honorary ungendered political figure. You might argue that the fact that she's white means that for both the black and hispanic community she's just aprt of an indistinguishable cadre of white politicians for whom they have had to vote in the absence of a viable african american or hispanic candidate. Her sexual orientation doesn't trump the fact that she's already a political actor so they consider her, the way you consider any incumbent, as almost a done deal.

Ten Bears said...

By that measure Golda Mier and Margaret Thatcher as well - all three broke the barrier (so too speak) but never were anything beyond a female face on the male hierarchy.

Philo Vaihinger said...

Perhaps there are other factors in her favor outweighing that reluctance.

Obama could be a two-headed serial killer and I'd still vote for him over any known Republican.

So long as he continues the lesser evil on earned benefits, anyway.

Ten Bears said...

The problem with that Phil, is the lesser of evils is never the less evil.

That could be a long term problem.

No fear.

Phil Perspective said...

Ten Bears & Victor:
All the leading NYC mayoral candidates are in hock to AIPAC. Both Weiner and Quinn also support "Stop & Frisk." One wonders if Weiner is running as a stalking horse for Quinn.