DON'T MEASURE THE DRAPES YET

Frank Rich in today's New York Times:

...Bush dead-enders are in a serious state of denial. Just how much so could be found in the [Wall Street] Journal interview when Mr. Rove extolled his party's health ... the latest New York Times-CBS News poll of Americans aged 17 to 29 found ... that the percentage of young people who identify as Republicans ... is down to 25, from a high of 37 at the end of the Reagan era.

Er, yeah, but that may be more of a harbinger of long-term trends than short-term trends. Remember that, despite the fact that there were all those kiddie Republicans around, Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead at one point in the 1988 campaign -- he lost because he was the target of a vicious campaign and he didn't fight back well at all, but he was on his way to victory that year. So don't assume that trends among youth voters can tell you how the next election is going to turn out.