SORRY, JOSH, BUT NO

Josh Marshall summarizes where we are now:

...We know the president's final strategy to keep the subpoenas at bay in 2007 and 2008. Put the worst al Qaida bad guys at Gitmo and force a rushed debate over legislation over how they will be tried. An up or down vote, either the president's kangaroo courts or nothing.

Dare Democrats to vote for nothing. If they do, mutilate them with 30 seconds. If they don't, sow dissension among the opposition....

But here's where it gets interesting. Three Republican senators say they won't play ball: Warner, McCain and Graham....

Josh thinks Warner and Graham will hold firm in insisting that the defendants have a right to know the evidence against them -- and that there's a chance McCain might also:

...McCain's no fool. He can see that Bush is now about as popular as a week old mackerel. And he also knows that the GOP nomination will only get him the presidency if he still has some colorable claim to political independence when the election comes around. McCain may figure that he's pandered and kowtowed enough to the Republican base that standing up to Bush can actually be in his political interest.

Er, I don't think so.

This is the mistake too many people make about McCain: He doesn't need to be a "maverick" ever again. He's already branded as a "maverick." He can vote with the administration 100% of the time from now until November '08 and he'll still be portrayed throughout that year's campaign as a "maverick," a guy with an "independent streak."

Besides, he doesn't need to seem like not-really-a-Republican to get enough votes to win the general election -- Bush proved that in 2004.

McCain needs to get through the Republican primaries, where he has to overcome a great deal of skepticism about his loyalty to the party and to the GOP politics of division; if he defies Bush on this issue at this time, he reaffirms the base's suspicions and arouses the base's anger. He might even be blamed personally for Republican losses this November. Republicans might begin to see him as their Lieberman.

It would be nice to think he'd hurt himself with everyone else by abandoning principle here, but it won't. He'll never not be seen as a "maverick" by media fawners, and therefore by most of the public. So, yes, he'll be a good soldier.