Wednesday, September 20, 2006


Well, it's pretty simple: The USA Today/Gallup poll that shows Bush bouncing to 44% was conducted September 15 through 17, while the New York Times/CBS poll that shows Bush still at 37% was conducted on September 15 through 19. I assume half the interviews in the latter poll were on the 18th and 19th -- and, unsurprisingly, the further away you get from the 9/11 anniversary, the lower Bush goes. Compare the results of Rasmussen's daily tracking poll -- the dates don't line up exactly, but in that poll there was a big bump caused by 9/11, a bump that disappeared as fast as it came.


BUT...: The story on the Times poll is coauthored by Adam Nagourney, so of course everything is hopeless for the Democrats:

... Americans have an overwhelmingly negative view of the Republican-controlled Congress....

The disdain for Congress is as intense as it has been since 1994, when Republicans captured 52 seats....

... it seems highly unlikely Democrats will experience a sweep similar to the one Republicans experienced in 1994. Most analysts judge only about 40 House seats to be in play at the moment....

Let's see: Republicans got about half of the contested seats in '94. And how many seats would Democrats get if they got half the contested seats this year? Um, half of 40 is 20. And how many do they need to take back the House?

Oh yeah -- 15.

Yup -- taking over the house would be a typical Democratic failure, per Nagourney.

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