BLOOMBERG ASSEMBLES NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN FOCUS GROUP AND NO ONE SUPPORTS JEB BUSH

Bloomberg Politics and Purple Strategies assembled two focus groups in New Hampshire this week (probably on St. Patrick's Day, judging from the amount of green the participants were wearing). The focus groups were small -- ten Republicans in one, ten Democrats in the other -- but, well, New Hampshire's a small state. The participants were questioned on camera by Mark Halperin and John Heilemann, and the results are showing up in Halperin and Heilemann's webcast, so, of course, the hook of the story (written by H&H's colleague Margaret Talev) is Both front-runners are in deep, deep trouble!

Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, the presumptive establishment frontrunners for the 2016 presidential nomination, may be facing real problems within their parties.

But, as we learn, some problems are worse than others. Hillary's problem is that the ten Democrats think she should have done a better job with her emails -- even though they all support her anyway.

Participants on the Democratic side contradicted claims by Clinton’s team that voters aren’t worrying about her e-mails. They indicated while they still intend to support Clinton, her handling of the matter has disappointed them and made her more vulnerable to lost support from others. They also said she should allow a third party to examine her private e-mail server so that the issue doesn’t give Republicans ammunition going forward.

(Emphasis added.)

Bloomberg's not allowing me to embed that video, but the emails come up after Heilemann asks, "So let's think about some of the negative things about Hillary Clinton, to the extent that there are some. What do you like least about her?"

By contrast, no one in the Republican focus group supports Jeb:

None said they’d back Bush if they were voting today.

Karen, 47, an interior designer said if Bush were the first in his family to run he might be elected. "After his faither and his brother, I don't think he'll have a chance," she said. Daphne, 23, a student, said that "if he was, you know, the only choice, then I'd vote for him" but otherwise there was "nothing" he could do to win her vote. "I don't know," she said. "I don't like him. I'm not for him." ...

“I know enough to know I don’t need to keep voting for a Bush over and over again or a Clinton over and over again,” said Matthew, a 35-year-old with some college education. He said Bush represents “the Republicans we’ve been trying to get rid of for the last eight or 10 years.”

Diana, a retiree, said while Bush sounded “pretty good” in a recent speech she heard, she may not be able to get past some of his ideological differences and a concern he isn’t conservative enough. “Does he have more good than bad, or does he have more bad than good?”

I know a lot of you don't love Hillary Clinton, and I understand that -- but if no other electable Democrat runs and she's what's standing between us and a Supreme Court with four new Federalist Society justices in early middle age, then I say Go, Hill. (And the broader public may feel the same way these New Hampshire Democrats do: a CNN poll released yesterday showed Clinton clocking seven Republicans, each by double digits, despite the email story.)

Jeb? I know a lot of you think he's a lock for the nomination, but as I keep saying, he's really testing the premise that GOP primary voters flirt with insurgents and then settle down with the Establishment's choice. Unlike war cheerleader McCain in '08 or Obamacare-basher Romney in '12, he's giving primary voters nothing to cheer for, and he expresses contempt for their passions every chance he gets. They actively dislike him.

Another thing that hurts Jeb: the GOP Congress's failure to crush Obama. If congressional Republicans were winning more battles with Obama, primary voters wouldn't be so desperate for a Democrat slayer. The longer Republicans bicker with one another and spin their wheels while Obama openly defies them, the less GOP voters are going to be willing to settle for Jeb. So, yeah, I continue to think the fat cats are going to have a hard time getting Jeb nominated.