Monday, October 21, 2013


I'm happy to see this CNN poll. The changes it's measuring may not endure, but those changes are significant and broad-based, at least for now:
Just over half the public says that it's bad for the country that the GOP controls the House of Representatives, according to a new national poll conducted after the end of the partial government shutdown.

And the CNN/ORC International survey also indicates that more than six in 10 Americans say that Speaker of the House John Boehner should be replaced....

This is the first time since the Republicans won back control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections that a majority say their control of the chamber is bad for the country....
When I saw this, I suspected that the approval drop for the GOP and Boehner would be mostly because of dissatisfaction among right-wingers (who presumably would want even more right-wing extremism and intransigence from the party and the Speaker, and who'll vote accordingly in 2014). Right-wing dissatisfaction is a factor -- according to the numbers (PDF), 32% of conservatives think it's bad that the GOP controls the House (I guess they'd prefer control by an actual Tea Party party), and 55% of conservatives want Boehner replaced as Speaker. However, moderates are also disillusioned -- back in December 2012 (PDF) they favored GOP control of the House 50%-43%, whereas now they oppose it 59%-32%; moderates approved of John Boeher's job performance 51%-35% in December, whereas now 65% want him replaced as Speaker.

But there is a floor for the GOP. We used to talk about "the 27%" -- the percentage of people who would vote right-wing under any and all circumstances. Well, maybe that number should have been 31%:

Nothing shakes these people's faith. And as long as there are more than 218 House districts in which the 31-percenters are a majority, Republicans will hold the House indefinitely.

(Poll via Memeorandum.)


Anonymous said...

I don't believer there *are* 218 districts where the 31% wins. There's still a moderate faction that is giving up on the GOP. Eventually, all they'll have left is 31%. Even a system as gerrymandered as we have now can't continue to win with that kind of a disadvantage.

Victor said...

It's the 27%, plus some drunk and high relatives and friends, who they've convinced that the Black man in the Oval Office is the worst thing that's ever happened to this country.