Thursday, January 26, 2012


I know, I know: it's wrong to assume that correlation implies causation. But look at what's going on with Florida GOP voters. Nate Silver:

Polls Suggest Gingrich's Support May Have Peaked

Polling released within the past 24 hours suggests that Mitt Romney may have stopped and possibly reversed Newt Gingrich's momentum before the Florida primary on Tuesday.

... In fact, I suspect ... that there is enough evidence -- when you look carefully at the day-to-day results -- to conclude that Mr. Romney has re-emerged as the slight favorite in Florida instead....

The poll chart at Talking Points Memo shows Romney's Florida lead over Gingrich getting bigger and bigger over the past couple of days -- it's now at 7.7% The latest survey to be added to TPM's poll mix is a Monmouth University survey (PDF) showing Mitt up by 7. It was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gee, what happened Monday night and Tuesday morning? Well, among other things, Romney released the tax information that was supposed to hurt him tremendously. Guess what? It hasn't -- not with Republican voters in Florida it hasn't. You can draw the same conclusion from a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday (Romney up by 8, after trailing Gingrich by 9 four days earlier) and an Insider Advantage poll (PDF) also conducted yesterday (Romney up by 8 in this one as well, with a similar reversal of fortune).

Now, there are a couple of obvious explanations for Romney's mini-surge in Florida: he has a much heavier TV presence in the state, and Gingrich delivered a tepid performance in the last debate. (Oh, and many media wingnuts are attacking Gingrich.)

But shouldn't that be offset by Romney's tax stuff, if (as mainstream pundits keep telling us) Republicans as well as Democrats think the plutocrats have gone too far in this country?

Florida Republicans clearly don't believe that. At the very least, they're giving Romney a pass on his wealth, his business practices, and his tax rate. Maybe it's too much to say that being a fat cat is helping Romney with these Republicans, but it sure isn't hurting him.

(X-posted at Balloon Juice.)


c u n d gulag said...

Maybe they figure that after they win Powerball, they can also be at the under 15% tax rate.

Dopes! Maroons!!!

Tom Hilton said...

I'd like to see the internals. In particular, have Romney's favorables improved, or is it higher negatives for Gingrich driving this? What's the demographic breakdown (e.g., is Romney regaining some of the under-$50K voters)?

And then there's the entirely separate question of whether it hurts him with the general electorate...

A Conservative Teacher said...

Republicans usually aren't the 'spread the wealth', 'covet they neighbor's wealth,' and 'be filled with rage at someone being successful' types.

Romney's tax information showed that he was paying the correct rates, gave a lot of money to charity, and was successful even in bad times. Those are all good things, so GOP voters reacted the way they did.

I know you don't like that- you want everyone to be equally poor, living under a Leviathan of a government that crushes human life, liberty, and property rights under its inhuman desire to control and suck and seize- but you obviously are voting socialist or fascist next election, so you're probably not a GOP primary type of voter.

Steve M. said...

Oh, yes, you're so right. I hate prosperity and comfort, especially my own. I have a roof over my head, food, clothing, creature comforts -- but I'd really prefer to be naked and shivering under an overpass, covered in running sores and not even sure if I'll live through the night. Because I crave misery, for myself and everyone else.

And you, you pathetic piece of crap, actually think I'm serious when I say that.

c u n d gulag said...

I don't believe you even know what Fascism is, you fucking twit.

But I'm sure you have a closet full of brown and black shirts.

You're the fucking Fascist you fucking moron.

I'm assuming you can read, since you're a 'conservative teacher,' and all that, so here's a quick definition of Fascism, you ignorant douchebag:

Fascism comes from the RIGHT!

So, stop jacking yourself off to Jonah's book, and take a sip of reality instead of Kool Aid.

What a dope! WHAT A MAROON!!!

Steve M. said...

Though I will say that "Suck and Seize" would be an excellent title for a Red Hot Chili Peppers song.

Anonymous said...

Helpful info. Fortunate me I discovered your site by accident, and I'm stunned why this accident didn't happened earlier! I bookmarked it.
Bissell Quicksteamer Multi Surface Lightweight Deep Cleaner, 17701