Monday, January 30, 2012

OOPS -- THERE GOES THAT RATIONALIZATION

Newt Gingrich yesterday on ABC:

Asked about his "collapse" in the polls on ABC News' "This Week," Gingrich said, "I think that they haven't quite collapsed. And the fact is, when you combine the Santorum vote and the Gingrich vote, we clearly are -- the conservative combined would clearly beat Romney."

Is that "clearly" true? Not according to Suffolk University it isn't:

The new Suffolk University poll of the Florida primary: Romney 47%, Gingrich 27%, Santorum 12%, Paul 9%.

(For the math-challenged, that's Romney 47%, Gingrich + Santorum 39%.)

Oh, and not according to Nate Silver's new forecast:

Our new Florida forecast: Romney 44.7 (97% chance of win), Newt 29.4, Santorum 13.2, Paul 11.1

(That's Romney 44.7%, Gingrich + Santorum 42.6%.)

I really wanted Newt to go all the way, and I'm sure he'll be entertaining if he refuses to quit, but it looks as if he's about to be crushed.

7 comments:

c u n d gulag said...

I hope he stays in, too.

Say what you will about him, but that fat-boy sure is entertaining when he's throwing bombs at his own side.

But, again, Steve, note that Newt's back to attacking Mitt as insufficiently Conservative, and not so much as a "Vulture Capitalist," setting him up better for the general.

BH said...

I wonder if we could get lucky enough to end up with both Doc Paul AND The Newt running indy campaigns in the general? Probably wishful thinking, but not impossible, given the amount of intra-GOP bile that seems to have been generated so far.

Steve M. said...

I'd love it, but I fear they're both going to hang back.

Go Gary Johnson! Go Donald Trump!

Steve M. said...

But, again, Steve, note that Newt's back to attacking Mitt as insufficiently Conservative, and not so much as a "Vulture Capitalist," setting him up better for the general.

Yeah, that's no help to us. I'm sure Newt is doing this because he realized his error, but I'm sorry he did.

Sammy said...

And it's very generous of Gingrich to assume he would have received 100% of the Santorum vote. There may be a large block of conservatives who are appalled by ethics-challenged, multiple adulterers.

Kathy said...

The only thing keeping me from thinking Gingrich will be crushed in Florida is the unexpectedly large margin by which he won in SC. Methinks some people are too embarrassed to tell pollsters they're voting for Newt. I still think he'll lose, but perhaps not crushingly.

BH said...

That sounds plausible, Kathy. If Newt's to lose Fla, I hope you're right & it's surprisingly narrowly - that'll reinflate him, definitely prolong his campaign, & generate some more of his astounding brainfarts (and cost Mitty more money, too).