Thursday, October 28, 2010


Mort Dinauer of Tapped had this to say yesterday about a preposterous but not particularly surprising bit of news from Politico's Ben Smith:

Ben Smith passes along the news that for Rudy Giuliani, "the door's not closed" for a presidential run, something Smith considers "worth keeping in the 2012 file." The only reason I bring this up is to note how for certain ex-politicians, the big presidential comeback assumes perpetual status for political journalists, no matter how far-fetched such ambitions actually are. Fred Thompson tweeted something? He's laying the groundwork. Rick Santorum is visiting Iowa again? The wheels are in motion. Newt Gingrich opened his mouth? 2012 is his to lose. Rudy Giuliani won how many delegates in 2008? He's leaving the door open.

I quote this because it's relevant to a discussion we all have about Sarah Palin.

Many people think she won't run for president in 2012 because she might lose, and that would "diminish her brand." But, as Dinauer notes, it's almost impossible to have your brand diminished in the eyes of D.C. conventional wisdom-mongers (at least if you're a Republican).

Sure, Giuliani and Thompson and Santorum seem like yesterday's news to most rational observers. But, as Dinauer says, they're still seen as hotshots in their world. Their status is diminished far less than it should be in that world. And Gingrich's, absurdly, is barely diminished at all.

And Sarah Palin is, well, Sarah Palin. To the idiots in the media, she's like Gingrich -- but Gingrich with Lindsey Lohan sex/gossip appeal. She could flame out in 2012 as badly as Rudy or Fred did in 2008 and they'll still hang on every tweet.

So, really, how much does she have to lose if she runs?

(Dinauer link via Dave Weigel.)

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