Wednesday, March 17, 2010


Folks at Free Republic and the Free Republic-wannabe site Liberty Post are crowing about the fact that the Intrade betting line for the passage of the health care bill plummeted in the past 24 hours. But when I go to Intrade now, it looks as if the current asking price has turned around and gone back up -- note the "Last Price" (click to enlarge):

Were wingnuts trying to beat health care reform by gaming Intrade, briefly and apparently unsuccessfully? (And is that even possible? I'm not a bettor so I don't know.)

I'm aware that right-wingers (and a lot of non-right-wingers) believe online betting services are extremely accurate prognosticators; the Intrade site carries a John Stossel quote to that effect ("Intrade makes more accurate predictions than I have ever come across"). Would someone try to manipulate this betting line to convey a sense that the bill was doomed?

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