Thursday, January 18, 2007

Everybody thinks I'm crazy when I say Giuliani can win the GOP nomination, but here he is leading McCain 28%-20% among likely Republican primary voters, according to Rasmussen.

This comes at the same time that an American Research Group poll shows McCain's support among New Hampshire independents plummeting, from 49% to 29%.

McCain still leads Rudy 29%-25% among likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters, according to ARG, but Giuliani's beating McCain in Iowa and Nevada, while running a strong second in supposedly too-conservative-for-a-guy-who-dressed-in-drag South Carolina (results: McCain 35%, Rudy 28%, Gingrich third with 15%).

Oh, and please note that Gingrich is running a strong third in all the ARG state polls I've mentioned, as well as in the Rasmussen poll. Romney and the rest are way back.

As things get worse in Iraq, I think GOP voters are going to get more and more desperate for a guy they think is a testosterone-heavy hero on a white horse. I think, as a result, Rudy's numbers among Republicans are going to go up. I think he's their Obama -- not someone they don't know much about, but someone they don't want to know much about. They've heard things they don't like, and they've heard things they love; they're trying to pretend they haven't heard the former, and are hoping that the latter means he'll save the world.

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