Atrios thinks the momentum in the California recall election is going "our way," as does Tarek at Liquid List. I wouldn't be so sure. Yes, opposition to the recall is 47%, according to this AP story, while support for the recall is at 50%. But that's among "likely voters" -- which probably means people who vote regularly. Arnold Schwarzenegger, if the Jesse Ventura campaign is any indication, will win (if he does win) on the strength of votes from unlikely voters -- young white males who usually don't give a damn about politics.

AP notes that Bustamante is down 5 percentage points since August, while Schwarzie is up 3. That's certainly not good news. A bright spot is that the hard-right-purist candidate, Tom McClintock, is up 6 points -- but if his momentum keeps up, you can bet he'll soon find a horse's head in his bed and drop out of the race.

So maybe it's good that an appeals court has ruled that the recall should be delayed -- assuming the ruling stands.