AS USUAL, IGNORANCE HAS A CONSERVATIVE BIAS

Most of us on the left are assuming that the right's decision to go all in on contraception is a hug political blunder, but CNN makes clear that this can play out the right's way if -- naturally -- people are kept confused and ill-informed:

Half of all Americans say they oppose the Obama administration's new policy concerning employer-provided health insurance plans and their coverage of contraceptive services for female employees including those at religiously affiliated institutions, according to a new national survey....

Surveys on this topic tell a mixed story because many Americans know little about the issue. Recent CBS and Fox polls indicate support for the new policy, using questions that describe the new policy in some detail. But in the CNN poll, when asked their opinion of the Obama policy with no details spelled out, support was much less and a large partisan divide emerged. A recent Pew poll also suggests Americans are closely divided, and that poll may hold the key to the differences. Nearly four in ten Americans say they have heard nothing at all about this controversy.

"The CNN poll illustrates the road ahead for the White House," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "If the administration can't inform more Americans about the details of the policy - details that some other polls show to be popular - the public is likely to split along party lines. Many will dislike the plan simply due to the fact that this is an Obama initiative."

So there it is: if the White House and other supporters of contraception keep the public informed, we win. If the right floods the zone with bamboozlement and misdirection, the right wins.

Still feel 100% confident in the outcome? I don't. Yes, we definitely should be able to win this one, but don't assume that the right has no path to victory -- and the right's path would be one the right is very, very familiar with.