Tuesday, February 28, 2012

RESIST? NAHHH. ROMNEY WOULD JUST GO BACK TO WEATHERVANING.

A Talking Points Memo reader writes this about Mitt Romney's likely response to calls for him to drop out of the race if he falters in the upcoming contests:

Does anyone really think he would just step aside for a new nominee or hand over his delegates at a brokered convention? He has been running for this job for years. He has plenty of money. They cant offer him a bigger job, financial power, etc. So what could the party leaders offer him to step aside. It wouldn't be "wait until next time" because stepping aside would show he is damaged goods politically.

Josh Marshall agrees:

... this is basically why the whole White Knight fantasy is so preposterous. Go quietly. Mitt? Like he did when it was time for Newt to take it away from him? Or Santorum?

... not going to happen. And really, why should he? Absent some massive, crippling scandal, which seems all but unimaginable from Mitt, he remains by far the most plausible and competitive candidate against President Obama.


I disagree. I think if the entire party machinery genuinely united and made it clear to Romney that it was time for him to go, he's extremely likely to cooperate at the right price. After all, what has he done all his life besides calibrate his actions to the demands of others?

The party would really have to be united, it would have to make going forward seem riskier to him than not going forward (surely there are skeletons in his closet he doesn't want revealed), and it would have to dangle a lot of carrots as well as sticks. (Fed chairmanship next time a Republican gets to pick? Presidency of the World Bank? Lucrative sinecures for his sons? Hell, he's got a law degree -- maybe a Supreme Court appointment?)

I agree with BooMan that this shouldn't actually come up after tonight, because Santorum won't win big in Michigan if he wins at all, and Romney will win big in Arizona. And I don't agree with Jamelle Bouie that an attempt by party leaders to find a white knight will necessarily outrage the base -- I can't think of too many substitute candidates who'd please the party hacks and the base, but Chris Christie certainly would.

In any case, I don't think the hurdle would be Romney. Go along to get along? That's what he's done all his life. They should chisel that on his tombstone.

10 comments:

ploeg said...

I think if the entire party machinery genuinely united and made it clear to Romney that it was time for him to go

This seems an unlikely axiom. From all I can see, the impetus for a mulligan on the nomination process is all coming from the money people. The rank and file will revolt if the money people pull a stunt like this.

It's not a matter of what candidate is picked by the money people. The rank and file might not respect the candidate that will eventually come out of the process (Romney), and they might not like the process itself so much, but they respect the process at least so much to prefer it to some smoke-filled room in Tampa. It'll be those Washington insiders screwing over the majority all over again.

Steve M. said...

The rank and file might not respect the candidate that will eventually come out of the process (Romney), and they might not like the process itself so much, but they respect the process at least so much to prefer it to some smoke-filled room in Tampa.

I know what the polls say, but I think the crazy base is suspicious of brokering only because base voters think that's going to result in a nominee who (by their lights) is as much of a RINO as Romney or more so.

I really think the base would absolutely prefer a smoke-filled room picking Christie to a primary season nominating Romney. I don't think these people really care how the nominee is arrived at -- they just want a soul mate as a nominee, by any means necessary.

Greg Hao said...

Steve, but you never answered Marshall's question. What can the party offer Romney at this point to buy his acquiescence?

I'm sure he believes that he just needs to survive the nomination process.

Steve M. said...

Well, I did answer it -- a prestige gig (Fed chairmanship?) and/or maybe something for the kids.

Everyone has his price, and Romney seems to be a person whose price wouldn't be particularly high, if he really felt that the entire power structure, not just a couple of has-been '90s wingnuts on a hot streak, was against him.

ploeg said...

I think the crazy base is suspicious of brokering only because base voters think that's going to result in a nominee who (by their lights) is as much of a RINO as Romney or more so.

Well, are they not right? Even if the Smoke-Filled Room churns out a candidate that is calculated to appeal to the crazy base, the crazy base will know that the candidate is beholden solely to the folks in the SFR, and the crazy base would be rightly suspicious about what concessions the candidate made to the folks in the SFR. That's rather different from getting a candidate that you had a say in nominating, however imperfect the process of expressing your say might be.

Might I also add that this might have a bearing on how people outside the party might look upon the SFR nominee, that the swing vote might see the SFR nominee as something less than fully legitimate?

Steve M. said...

I don't think the base gives a crap where the candidate came from. Bush and Cheney came from the Establishment and the base loved them (at least through 2004), because Bush and Cheney made the baser feel good. That's all that matters.

ploeg said...

Bush and Cheney came from the Establishment and the base loved them (at least through 2004), because Bush and Cheney made the baser feel good. That's all that matters.

Yes, old chap, but Bush/Cheney went through the process, didn't they? We know that Bush/Cheney ultimately got the nod through heredity and connections and money, but the folks in the sticks at least had the opportunity to pull the lever, didn't they? Pulling the lever makes you feel good (particularly if you are voting against some vague maverick like McCain). Going through all this trouble, just to have some Washington insider proclaim that the eventual choice isn't good enough and they are going to throw the nod to somebody who wasn't even in the race, that doesn't make you feel good. And you can be sure that Romney will play up all the possible angles of resentment that he can with all his remaining cash. Screw your UN Ambassadorship. I didn't kiss all those babies to be loan officer to Botswana. This is my turn.

The Republican Party is not a dictatorship. The Republican Party is a movement. One ignores this at one's peril.

Steve M. said...

You keep trying to convince me that the voters cherish the process, and sorry, but I just don't believe that. The Republican Party may be a movement, but the important thing to remember for the purposes of this argument is that the Republican Party is a bunch of spoiled brats. They want what they want. That means they want someone who makes them feel starbursts -- however that happens.

Greg Hao said...

@steve - sorry! Damn these speed reading classes I've been taking on the cheap. I'm still largely a skeptic on Romney bowing out, but reasonable people can disagree.

Steve M. said...

I don't think he'll have a reason to drop out. I've just been arguing that if the party thought he had to, he'd comply, because he's a compliant kind of guy.