Wednesday, October 05, 2016


The headline news in this new Fairleigh Dickinson poll is that Hillary Clinton has a 10-point lead:
In the race for the White House, the most recent national survey of likely voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a ten-point lead over Republican Donald Trump....

Right now, half of all likely voters (50%) say that if the election were held today, they would vote for Clinton. Forty percent would vote for Trump. When third-party candidates are included among the list of candidates, Clinton and Trump both experience a four percent reduction in support - Clinton to 46 percent and Trump to 36 percent.
And a race with Tim Kaine as the Democratic presidential nominee and Mike Pence as the Republican presidential nominee would also go to the Democrats by a wide margin:
When pitted against each other, in a hypothetical race that makes both the vice-presidential candidates the presidential candidates, the Democrats continue to dominate, but by a slightly smaller margin. Forty-nine percent say they would support Kaine, with 41 percent backing Pence.
Kaine would be looking at a landslide victory against Trump:
... if Trump were going up against Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, his prospects would dim even further. The ten percentage point gap among likely voters that separates him from Clinton would grow to sixteen points (39% v. 55%, respectively).
... if Clinton were instead facing Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, the race would be a statistical dead heat.

... When asked who they favor if the choices were Clinton and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, Clinton’s lead is all but erased. The same number say they would support Pence (46%) as those who would vote for Clinton (47%).
And why is that?
The difference-maker in that Pence-Clinton match-up is largely young people, who swing more than 20 points in the Republicans' direction when it's not Trump that's running.

Yes, that's right: If Hillary Clinton were running against Mike Pence -- Mike "Religious Freedom Law" Pence, Mike "Mandatory Funerals for Aborted Fetuses" Pence, Mike "Divert HIV Funds to Gay Conversion Therapy" Pence -- he'd win among 18-to-29-year-olds by 8 points. The young would be his best age group in this contest:

Look, kids, we know you hate Hillary Clinton the way the cool kids hated Carrie. We know you hate Hillary so much you'd love to just douse her in pigs' blood at the prom. We know you get how awful Trump is, and that's why other polls (though not this one) show you as the group with whom Clinton does best. This poll, however, suggests that you really might have been won over by any other Republican -- Rubio, Walker, Jindal, Cruz -- just because of your unbridled loathing for Clinton.

I get it. You don't have adult memories of living through George W. Bush's presidency, much less Ronald Reagan's or Richard Nixon's. So you don't know how horrible a generic Republican would be as president. You're not even sure, according to this poll and others, that Trump would be all that bad.

Your decrepit elders will save you from a Trump presidency, kids. Hey, don't mention it. You can thank us later.


Feud Turgidson said...

First, Pence would've had zero chance to win the GOP nom this year. So assuming his nomination is itself fantasy.

But even assuming the fantasy were true, how would Pence be doing now after 9 months plus of close examination by the Dems and a large chunk of news media?

IOW, I doubt the whole premise here.

Unknown said...

Problem: Millennials hate Hillary Clinton.

Solution: Insult said millennials until they change their mind.

Who says Democrats have no fresh ideas?

Raymond Smith said...

A lot of those voters were the same ones that did a no show in 2010. They then had the nerve to go on social media to complain about Congress. It is amazing how naive some voters are in this age of numerous ways to find factual information. It would do young voters a vast amount of good to give up 15 minutes a day and read history of the George W. Bush years.
If you choose not to vote, then you support whatever the outcome occurs from your inaction. Not voting this time is a vote for Trump and the GOP and ALL of the policies that the GOP supports. Your vote does matter people and you will have to live with the outcome for years to come.

Victor said...

It's all old saying, but it's true:
If you don't vote, than don't bitch about the results!

EVERY vote counts!

So, help GOTV for D's in your area.

The life you save, may be your own - and, the rest of Americans, and, actually, humanity. We don't need t-RUMP getting pissed off enough that he decides to nuke some country whose leader insulted him.
And then, there's global climate change.

So, you "MORANS!", you want to sit this one out?
Or, vote 3rd Party?
Take responsibility for the results if t-RUMP wins.
And then, STFU AND DON'T BITCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You could have made a difference, but, because of apathy, or coolness, or wanting to be a maverick, YOU FUCKERS CAN'T BITCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

KenRight said...

Gee, I believed you would decry Pence's false characterization of Iraq as "won" and "stable" until Obama left early and allowed ISIS to have it.
Except, now that I consider it, Obama also lied about Iraq being a stable democracy before leaving "too soon."
I guess it's all a distinction without a difference since Clinton also lied at the time and proceeded to attempt to overthrow Assad.
Thank God and Allah there are forces stabilizing the Mideast and protecting Christians there in the process, and they aren't America's and Clinton's friends, the Saudis and Israel and any jihadis who will temporarily work with us against Assad and Iran.

Mart said...

Remember that um agreement under Bush where we had to stop killing civilians in Iraq or our soldiers would be liable for the deaths, and this here agreement went into effect under Obama? Probably not. Also too how many of our boys and gals died under Obama vs. Bush? If you are all that concerned about ISIS and Iraq, fly over there and give the Kurds a hand in the fighting.

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Mart said...
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Riverboat Grambler said...

It's funny how Millennials are completely at fault for the 2010 (and 2014) midterms and never at all the fault of the centrist Dems who lost those races. As I recall, alot of the "moderate" voters those Dems were chasing with their watered-down Republican policy choices never showed up either. But why ever think about that when you can gnash your teeth and stomp your feet at the generation that was (at that time) largely ignored by the Dem party?

This is not to say that Millennials do not share part of the blame, but simply to point out that there was a little more to those electoral shellackings than just Millennials needing to STFU AND DON'T BITCH!!!!!!!!!

As for the one poll that showed some Millennials don't like Hillary when the vast majority of Sanders voters are voting Clinton, pfft. Stop feeling sorry for yourself that Clinton doesn't capture the Millennial imagination. Sure there is an entire media complex dedicated to spreading bullshit about her and also deep-rooted sexism playing into it, but there are also legitimate reasons why one can have an unfavorable opinion of her policies. Her weaknesses as a candidate can not all be blamed on Fucking Millennials.

Some people have infinite patience for centrist triangulation, but endless ire for anyone would would expect more from the party that claims to represent them.

Victor said...

And who was it who made it worse in a region that was already a cluster-fuck?

Your hero, "Young Curchill," following the wishes of "Darth" Cheney, and the neo-clowns.

So, 'please be to stfu, please, you feckin'eedjit!!!'

Green Eagle said...

Yeah, they are stupid, but on the other hand, virtually no one knows a thing about Mike Pence, the Dan Quayle of the new millennium. Once he got some real attention, they would discover what a miserable son of a bitch he is.

Belvoir said...

Ken Rightly Mocked, the US was bound to leave Iraq under the Status of Forces agreement W Bush made , not Obama. The Iraqi government of today demanded we leave, and any US soldier that might stay there if your fantasy of Obama insisting we keep troops there would be subject to arrest and criminal charges. Why do you hate our troops, Ken Rightly Humiliated Every Day? When did YOU serve in the army? Never is the answer, it's funny what a waste of time you are.

Aside from the mosquito that is Ken, the idea that young people might support a severe hard right-wing religious fanatic like Mike Pence is seriously disturbing.

Anonymous said...

It behooves us to recall that had he not been picked to occupy the moons of drumpf's anus Pence would be losing his bid for re-election right now. Game over.

The notion of younger voters "flocking to Pence" is about as realistic as Ken the Eager Goyim's grasp of both history and the American language: good for laugh but not much else. Give it up,

Ten Bears

Anonymous said...

Addendum: just opened one of those annoying though at times useful emails from the dark side informing me that dog is working through drumpf to get Pence into the white house, that once drumpf is elected dog will eliminate him and hand Pence the presidency on a divine platter.

KenRight said...

Where do your ignoramuses get that I have anything but contempt for both neocons and neolibs, for both Bush and Obama and Clinton?
Yes, Obama was bound to leave under the status of forces agreement but he tried under the table to force Maliki's hand to no avail. Then he lied to the troops and Americans in general that he and they were leaving Iraq a stable democracy.
He might as well have. By failing to prosecute Cheney and Wolfowitz and Feith and Perle, he legitimatized them so they could return and accuse him of losing Iraq. Kucinich would have had their asses in jail.

Belvoir said...

Where do your [sic] ignoramuses get that I have anything but contempt for both neocons and neolibs, for both Bush [sic] and Obama and Clinton?

Where you're coming from is sort of in your fucking name, Ken. And your comment history has been noted as being really ineffectual trollery. I really wonder how you have so much time to waste.

Anonymous said...

It's a good thing it is paid for the quantity of its trolling, rather the the quality of its trolling, otherwise the taxpayers would have another welfare whore to feed, clothe and medicate.

AK said...

Could you be more condescending? How dare those millennials not fall into line with historically supporting the Dem candidate!

How about sharing your snarky thought why men go for Pence at +13?