IS IT 1998 ALL OVER AGAIN?

I was slammed in comments for my last post, in which I argued that the Access Hollywood tape would probably lead to only a slightly larger victory for Hillary Clinton. Since I wrote that, top Republicans have abandoned Trump, and the press has suggested that he's going to lose in a landslide. And yet:



That's from a Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted after the release of the video.

Overall, fewer than four-in-10 voters -- 39 percent -- think Trump should end his presidential campaign, while only slightly more voters, 45 percent, think he should not drop out.

But voters are largely viewing Trump's comments through their own partisan lens: 70 percent of Democrats say Trump should end his campaign, but just 12 percent of Republicans -- and 13 percent of female Republicans -- agree.

... Nearly three-quarters of Republican voters, 74 percent, surveyed on Saturday said party officials should continue to support Trump. Only 13 percent think the party shouldn’t back him.

A few glosses on this from the pros:

For the last 16 months we've found there's a cult like aspect to Trump's hardcore support base. Cults don't abandon their leaders https://t.co/Svg6Sl4IRj

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 8, 2016

Been following Sen. Blunt and talking to Missouri conservatives all day; can't find one who wants Trump to quit.

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 8, 2016

If you're still backing Trump after his comments on nukes, the Khan family, his tax avoidance and Machado -- and Trump tape changes things?

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 9, 2016

Two Clinton-voting college male Dem friends stunned at media calling Trump comments "assault." One said half-jokingly he might back DT after https://t.co/plWCBTZ6Nr

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 9, 2016

Remember the disconnect in 1998 between the political elite's reaction and the general public's reaction to the Monica Lewinsky scandal? The insiders said Clinton would have to step down, but the public continued to give him high job approval numbers, if not high personal approval numbers. We may be in a similar place with Trump -- this story may not change many minds.

Or maybe you're all right and I'm wrong -- maybe the disgust at all this is going to take a few days to show up in the polls. We'll see. For now we know it isn't showing up.