Thursday, April 02, 2015


According to a new Washington Post/ABC poll, Jeb Bush is well ahead of his rivals in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, though, of course, not as far ahead as Hillary Clinton is on the Democratic side:
In the contest for the Republican nomination, Bush tops the field with 20 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents saying they would support him if their primary or caucus were held today. He is followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 13 percent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 12 percent. Five other Republicans receive at least 6 percent support, with an additional six candidates at either 2 or 1 percent.
(Clinton's at 66% among Democrats. Joe Biden is in second place at 11%.)

Clinton has double-digit leads -- yes, still -- over the Republicans:
Tested against four possible Republicans in a general election -- Bush, Cruz, Walker and Rubio -- Clinton holds double-digit leads in every case. Bush does marginally better than the others, but trails by 53 to 41 percent among registered voters, while Cruz runs weakest at 54 to 37percent.
But it's early, right? And don't Hillary and Jeb both have the same problem -- that a certain percentage of voters support them in a knee-jerk way, as inevitable nominees, but no one is actually enthusiastic about either of them?

Well, that's not quite true. Between Jeb and Hillary, there's huge enthusiasm gap:

It turns out that 42% of Democrats are "very enthusiastic" about Hillary Clinton. Only 12% of Republicans are very enthusiastic about Jeb Bush. That also means that there'll be enthusiasm for Hillary if she's running against a fresher Republican than Jeb.

Maybe you don't think that's a good thing. I get that -- but I want the next Supreme Court vacancies to be chosen by a Democrat rather than pulled off a list of recommendations from the same folks who gave us Roberts and Alito. I want the next four years of budgets not to reek of Paul Ryan. Hillary Clinton may not be the liberal of anyone's dreams, but she's against Indiana's religious freedom act, and what Republican presidential aspirant can say the same? (Oh, sorry, there's one: George Pataki, who seems serious about running this year, though no one knows why.)

So I'm glad Democratic voters are enthusiastic about Hillary. And I'm very glad that Republicans may be on their way to picking a nominee a lot of them don't like and the public as a whole doesn't like:
Bush ... is viewed favorably by just 33 percent of the public, while 53 percent say they view him unfavorably.
(Hillary's general-public numbers aren't spectacular, but they're above water, at 49%-46%.)

Good job, GOP establishment: few people like the guy you're forcing on your party, and hardly anyone is fired up about him. That's your strategy? Please proceed.


Victor said...

Look, Hillary isn't the gal or guy of my dreams.

But, I'm 100% sure that the GOP alternatives will prove to be a nightmare!!!

Dark Avenger said...

(AP). Hillary Clinton's choice to run her 2016 Presidential bid is already running into resistance from some Democratic insiders.

Matt Murdock, prominent defense attorney and noted disability rights activist, is on the inside track, according to sources in the campaign, but is running into resistance from Wall Street interests who still remember his involvement in the Occupy Wall Street movement a few years ago, and have revived rumors of his alleged ties to the acrobatic vigilante Daredevil.

Mr. Murdocks' office issued the following statement when contacted by this reporter.

"It is certainly revealing that some insiders seem to think that only The Man Without Fear could help Hillary Clinton to victory in 2016."

pbriggsiam said...

I love your blog. I read yours and Booman daily. You both have a sense of what's real, a way with words and clearly experienced in the world of politics and activism. Thank you!

Gottlieb Laponte said...

OK, I'm a big daredevil fan myself, but I don't get your HRC-Daredevil joke. Care to explain?

Knight of Nothing said...

I like how the polling graph for Jeb looks like someone's flippin the bird.

Dark Avenger said...


Daro said...

Where are all these Hillary supporters I hear mentioned? Take a look at this article about her in The Guardian (a left-leaning paper). The comments run about 90-1 against her. Just like most other progressive blog comments dealing with her.

Steve M. said...

There are a lot of political insiders and wonks quoted in that Guardian article. No ordinary voters.

And if online lefty comments were a reliable measure of opinion, Ralph Nader would have beaten Al Gore and George W. Bush in many states in 2000.

Rick Ferguson said...

This seems relevant in that if she doesn't do something about it soon those numbers aren't likely to continue favoring her.