Saturday, April 11, 2015


Marco Rubio is supposed to be the GOP's Great Hispanic hope, but the polling firm Latino Decisions finds that Hispanics aren't biting:
This past November we asked 4,200 Latinos who voted in the 2014 midterm elections whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of Rubio. Nationally, only 31 percent had a favorable view (12 percent "very favorable", and 19 percent "somewhat favorable") while 36 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of the Senator (22 percent "very unfavorable", and 14 percent "somewhat unfavorable"), a net of -5....

In competitive states where Latinos comprise a significant share of the active and eligible electorate, Rubio's numbers remain in negative territory. In his home-state of Florida--where Latinos are a critical component to this famously competitive state--Rubio's favorables reach only 39 percent, compared to 42 percent unfavorable; a -3 net result. Similarly, his unfavorable share is just over 40 percent in North Carolina and Nevada....
The polling firm concludes that Rubio and Hispanic voters are on opposite sides not only on immigration reform but on Obamacare, which Latino voters strongly support.

A national Public Policy Polling survey conducted late last month found similar results. Rubio's favorability among Hispanics was just 24% -- not only do Clinton, Biden, and Warren beat this (by a considerable margin), but Cruz, Christie, Huckabee, Bush, Walker, and Paul all do a bit better than Rubio among Hispanics. Clinton beats Rubio 64%-28% among Hispanics, which makes him the worst-performing Republican against Clinton in the PPP poll among Hispanic voters (Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Paul, Perry, and Walker all do slightly better).

I expect you'll hear a lot of nonsense about the outreach impact of Rubio's upcoming candidacy announcement, which will be at Miami's Freedom Tower, where Cuban emigres were received in the 1960s and 1970s. I think that's just going to remind non-Cuban Hispanics that Cubans who made it to American soil have been received with open arms, while non-Cubans, including those fleeing dreadful oppression, are routinely turned away, harassed, or forced to live in the shadows. The announcement will make a lot of white people think Rubio is doing successful ethnic outreach. It's the gullible whites who'll mostly be fooled.


That PPP poll doesn't have particularly good news for Rand Paul, either, with regard to non-white outreach. Paul has been speaking before black audiences and acknowledging racial inequalities in the criminal justice system -- but black voters don't seem to be warming to him. His favorability among African-Americans is 13%. Clinton's is at 80%. Biden's at 58%. Warren's at 55%. On the Republican side, even Chris Christie (17%) beats Paul. And Clinton beats Paul among black voters 89%-5%.

The Beltway media is impressed with how well these guys are communicated with voters outside the GOP base. Voters outside the GOP base aren't.


petrilli said...

Its not surprising at all to see that Marco Rubio's Cuban heritage won't automatically click with Hispanic voters at large. As a public high school teacher in Queens, who also grew up in Texas, I've observed that the diversity of Latinos in this country is supremely unappreciated and underestimated. Yes, in white suburbia, but also among Latinos themselves. Some of the younger Cuban community are even starting to reject the bellicose hectoring associated with traditional anti-Castro backlash embraced by their elders and Rubio:

Victor said...

This empty-suit has virtually no chance in the GOP!

In Russian, we have a term for someone like him:
Bez obidnyee - which loosely translates to: 'Not with any malice intended...:'

And believe me, the GOP has a LOT of malice intended!!!

And this is why Marco - the 6th Marx Brother - HAS NO CHANCE!!!!

trnc said...

I suspect the reason Rubio does worse than other candidates with Hispanics, even though the others hold essentially the same policy views, is that the Hispanics feel like he's trying to use his heritage to pander. Top that off with Rubio's phony baloney story about his parents fleeing Castro's Cuba and the group has one more reason to think he's just trying to use them.

Yastreblyansky said...

There's also a race issue that the GOP apparently knows nothing about--most immigrants from Mexico and Central America are in various degrees of complexity Indians, and most from Caribbean islands other than Cuba are in various degrees of complexity black, but those from Cuba tend to be the descendants of property owners despoiled by the Revolution, and basically white. Some people think that's why they have always gotten special treatment by the immigration authorities that Haitians and Dominicans have not enjoyed (of course it has nothing to do with that, it is that they were victims of godless Communism while the Haitians and Dominicans might be shiftless and lazy, especially if you've never met any). But none of them have any particular pull among the Latino community at large unless they offer something specific that the GOP will not allow Rubio to offer.

Professor Chaos said...

Beltway types assume that Hispanics will be drawn to Rubio because of his surname and skin tone. As if Hispanics don't decide who to vote for based on the same issues the rest of us do.