EATING ONLY AN APPETIZER-SIZED PORTION OF CROW

I thought Democrats would cave first on the payroll tax; I cited Dave Weigel, who thought the same thing. I'm eating crow now, as is Weigel -- but I don't see this as doing a whole lot of damage to the Republicans now, and neither does he:

...I was wrong when I said the GOP would win the long game....

But what's the long, long game? Two months ago, the assumption was that a payroll tax holiday would be extended for a year with few conditions. Republicans failed to extend it with maximal conditions -- unemployment insurance reform, etc. They instead will extend it for two months, with one condition, and demand more at the end of February in exchange for another extender. It was ugly, and they might have won more if they'd just spiked the ball a week ago. But they didn't have a chance this time to get all of their demands. They get one of their demands, and another chance. They'll have to eat some "Republicans in disarray" headlines for a few days, but reporters are heading home and offline, too. Democrats won the immediate fight. Republicans didn't lose too much in the war.

No, they didn't. Public Policy Polling has a new survey (conducted Friday through Monday) showing some slippage in public opinion of the GOP, but not nearly as much as you'd hope:

In the midst of the fight over the payroll tax cut extension, voters have turned a little more against the Republicans in Congress. Already at only a 26% approval rating, with 62% disapproving, last month, the Congressional GOP falls at 25-67 with voters nationally now....

Republicans' leader in the House, Speaker John Boehner, has also seen his ratings slip.... Only 27% of Americans approve of Boehner's job performance ... from an already bad 30[%]....

Only 34% of Americans think Republicans are doing a better job controlling the House than when Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats were in charge, down from 37% in November. 43% think they are doing a worse job, up from 41%....

... Democrats have inched ahead in the national generic congressional ballot, with a 46-44 lead over the GOP. It was a 45-all tie in November....

Jesus, what does it take for Dems to get a lead above the margin of error against these bastards? I mean, maybe this will do it, but I'm afraid it's just going to be forgotten until the next game of chicken.