THE DEMOCRATS' LACK OF A MADMAN STRATEGY
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know: The Wall Street Journal, Scott Brown, and John McCain are all fretting that the payroll tax showdown is hurting the GOP politically. But tell me why I shouldn't believe Dave Weigel's theory that the GOP is going to win, as usual:
The cynic's bet is that the story of GOP dysfunction won't matter, so long as there's eventually some compromise. Eyes on the prize: If the other side blinks, and it always does, what can Republicans get out of them?
Key phrase there: and it always does. When was the last time the Democratic Party didn't blink?
...Yes, the Republicans are coming off as intransigent. But Democrats want to re-elect the president, so they'll ultimately give up a lot to extend a tax cut and unemployment benefits. In the meantime, Republicans can figure out what leverage they have to weaken the welfare state. Despite how it looks right now, it doesn't make sense to doubt them. After all, they've had a lot of practice at this.
I agree. Democrats don't dare apply a domestic version of Nixon's madman strategy -- that is, they don't dare say, "Well, we're perfectly content to blow the whole thing up" -- because they fear they'll be blamed. And given the media's relentlessly blame-everybody narrative -- echoed on numerous occasions by President Obama -- why should they have confidence that they'd avoid the blame?
So everyone will be called back between now and January and Republicans will start the hostage negotiations:
They want a few things. The House's version of the one-year extension included reforms that Republicans plan to stick to. On unemployment, the GOP wanted to cut the maximum duration from 99 weeks to 59 weeks and add in some new requirements. Beneficiaries who didn’t have GEDs would have to try to get them. States implementing unemployment insurance could require drug tests....
Also among the House GOP's demands: a hold on new EPA rules governing boilers, and an expedited decision of the Keystone XL pipeline....
Democrats aren't going to play chicken successfully because playing chicken isn't in their nature, because (unlike the snot-nosed teabag Republicans) they actually give a crap whether these benefits are extended, and because they've never spent any time building and communicating an Republicans-are-evil narrative that they can tap into right now. So, yeah, I think Weigel's absolutely right about this.
(X-posted at Booman Tribune.)
7 comments:
Democrats do not ALWAYS blink!
In fact, most times, it's not that they're blinking, it's that they are flinching!
One little interesting tidbit though - even the WSJ editorial page is screaming at how badly the Republicans played this round - courtesy of the other great Steve, Steve B., at WaMo:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_12/the_republicans_payroll_tax_fi034233.php
And what kind of monumental, epic cock-up does it take for the WSJ to call Republicans out?
I'm underwhelmed by that op-ed. The Journalistas think this plays well for the Democrats politically. I think they're worried about nothing. Has there ever been a group of people more inclined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at every possible opportunity?
No, Democrats are kind of like a 'reverse Tebow.'
I hate using that analogy, but something tells me he won't last long as a starting QB, so I might as well use his name before he becomes a famous Televangelist, using Jesuss name to run another grift on the religious rubes.
Yesterday NPR's All Things Considered interviewed Rep. David Dreier (R-CA) about the reason the Republicans blocked the two month payroll tax relief and unemployment extension. After an initial attempt at obfuscation, he finally said that the Senate's bill didn't go far enough with regards to the Keystone XL Pipeline. The House explicitly required the President to proceed with the Pipeline project within 60 days, whereas the Senate bill only required him to make a decision about it in that time.
The Corporate controlled House effectively ordered the President to do the corporations' bidding, or there would be no tax relief or help for the unemployed. And came within an inch, again, of shutting down the government, of shutting down the country. Corporate control of the Government is Fascism.
There is, of course, the matter that Democrats tend to want government to work properly, whereas in many cases it suits Republicans just fine if government does not work. This asymmetry does tend to moot any sort of madman strategy on the Democratic side (see Judgment of Solomon).
Serves me right not to read to the end:
Democrats aren't going to play chicken successfully because playing chicken isn't in their nature, because (unlike the snot-nosed teabag Republicans) they actually give a crap whether these benefits are extended, and because they've never spent any time building and communicating an Republicans-are-evil narrative that they can tap into right now. So, yeah, I think Weigel's absolutely right about this.
Yeah, pretty much.
...because (unlike the snot-nosed teabag Republicans) they actually give a crap whether these benefits are extended,
Not exactly:
Despite the high-profile disagreements, which have repeatedly led to lapsed benefits for millions of people, Republicans and Democrats broadly agree on what to do next: reduce the duration of benefits and make sure their cost isn't added to the federal budget deficit.
In December, Republicans proposed reducing the number of weeks available by 40. Democrats are willing to meet them halfway by cutting 20 weeks, albeit in a backdoor fashion: Congress would reauthorize the two federal unemployment programs, but the second would automatically phase out in one state after another over the course of 2012.
Digby sums it up:
So part of the great bipartisan compromise to extend UI before Christmas is to only cut extended benefits by 20 weeks instead of 40. Huzzah.
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