Floyd Norris of The New York Times thinks the U.S. economy just had a terrific quarter -- but there's no reason to expect an encore:

The third quarter was a phenomenal one for the American economy, which probably grew at an annual rate of above 5 percent. Corporate profits soared....

Overlooked in some of the analysis at the time was the most obvious fact of all: checks totaling $13.7 billion were being mailed out by Uncle Sam to millions of families....

Now comes the aftermath. The checks were in the hands of Americans in July and August, and clearly lifted spending in the back-to-school season. We don't have September numbers yet, but there was probably some stimulative effect then. But it's over now....

"The fading of the tax-cut impact means consumption growth will slow significantly in coming months," said Greg Jensen of Bridgewater Associates, an institutional money management firm. "There is some chance this decline will be muted if corporations start hiring, but there are no signs they are doing that yet. Without a significant increase in labor compensation, spending growth will decline significantly and we could be in the early stages of a renewed dip in the economy."