In the race for the White House, the most recent national survey of likely voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a ten-point lead over Republican Donald Trump....And a race with Tim Kaine as the Democratic presidential nominee and Mike Pence as the Republican presidential nominee would also go to the Democrats by a wide margin:
Right now, half of all likely voters (50%) say that if the election were held today, they would vote for Clinton. Forty percent would vote for Trump. When third-party candidates are included among the list of candidates, Clinton and Trump both experience a four percent reduction in support - Clinton to 46 percent and Trump to 36 percent.
When pitted against each other, in a hypothetical race that makes both the vice-presidential candidates the presidential candidates, the Democrats continue to dominate, but by a slightly smaller margin. Forty-nine percent say they would support Kaine, with 41 percent backing Pence.Kaine would be looking at a landslide victory against Trump:
... if Trump were going up against Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, his prospects would dim even further. The ten percentage point gap among likely voters that separates him from Clinton would grow to sixteen points (39% v. 55%, respectively).However:
... if Clinton were instead facing Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, the race would be a statistical dead heat.And why is that?
... When asked who they favor if the choices were Clinton and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, Clinton’s lead is all but erased. The same number say they would support Pence (46%) as those who would vote for Clinton (47%).
The difference-maker in that Pence-Clinton match-up is largely young people, who swing more than 20 points in the Republicans' direction when it's not Trump that's running.Yes, that's right: If Hillary Clinton were running against Mike Pence -- Mike "Religious Freedom Law" Pence, Mike "Mandatory Funerals for Aborted Fetuses" Pence, Mike "Divert HIV Funds to Gay Conversion Therapy" Pence -- he'd win among 18-to-29-year-olds by 8 points. The young would be his best age group in this contest:
Look, kids, we know you hate Hillary Clinton the way the cool kids hated Carrie. We know you hate Hillary so much you'd love to just douse her in pigs' blood at the prom. We know you get how awful Trump is, and that's why other polls (though not this one) show you as the group with whom Clinton does best. This poll, however, suggests that you really might have been won over by any other Republican -- Rubio, Walker, Jindal, Cruz -- just because of your unbridled loathing for Clinton.
I get it. You don't have adult memories of living through George W. Bush's presidency, much less Ronald Reagan's or Richard Nixon's. So you don't know how horrible a generic Republican would be as president. You're not even sure, according to this poll and others, that Trump would be all that bad.
Your decrepit elders will save you from a Trump presidency, kids. Hey, don't mention it. You can thank us later.