Sunday, October 09, 2016

IS IT 1998 ALL OVER AGAIN?

I was slammed in comments for my last post, in which I argued that the Access Hollywood tape would probably lead to only a slightly larger victory for Hillary Clinton. Since I wrote that, top Republicans have abandoned Trump, and the press has suggested that he's going to lose in a landslide. And yet:



That's from a Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted after the release of the video.
Overall, fewer than four-in-10 voters -- 39 percent -- think Trump should end his presidential campaign, while only slightly more voters, 45 percent, think he should not drop out.

But voters are largely viewing Trump's comments through their own partisan lens: 70 percent of Democrats say Trump should end his campaign, but just 12 percent of Republicans -- and 13 percent of female Republicans -- agree.

... Nearly three-quarters of Republican voters, 74 percent, surveyed on Saturday said party officials should continue to support Trump. Only 13 percent think the party shouldn’t back him.
A few glosses on this from the pros:









Remember the disconnect in 1998 between the political elite's reaction and the general public's reaction to the Monica Lewinsky scandal? The insiders said Clinton would have to step down, but the public continued to give him high job approval numbers, if not high personal approval numbers. We may be in a similar place with Trump -- this story may not change many minds.

Or maybe you're all right and I'm wrong -- maybe the disgust at all this is going to take a few days to show up in the polls. We'll see. For now we know it isn't showing up.

39 comments:

AllieG said...

Story may not change many minds, but it's not going to change minds for Trump, and that's what he needs. At some point, the reaction of professional pols has to be taken into account. If it wasn't seen as a disaster, why did so many Republicans run away yesterday?

John Taylor said...

Trump's core supporters won't desert him. He's saying what they are only thinking and they love him for that.

Unknown said...

I left this comment on another blog yesterday: "If the Republican party nominated Hannibal Lecter, and he finished every campaign appearance by eating a live baby, he would still get at least 40% of the vote in the general election. That’s if the Democrats nominate Jesus Christ to run against him. And you know who evangelical fundamentalist Christians would vote for."

foosion said...

Lewinsky was eager. Trump is talking about sexual assault. There's a difference there.

Charon04 said...

Trump's polling was already deteriorating over Alicia Machado, so she was the low-hanging fruit on abuse issues. This may not cost Trump much additional from his supporters, but Trump is going to have it tougher now with anyone who is still in play

Rand Careaga said...

I well remember Mark Shields, who for a couple of decades has played Shana Alexander* ("liberal") to various James Kilpatricks* ("conservative," latterly David "Bobo" Brooks) on the PBS Newshour, asserting in 1998 that Clinton was finished. When it was pointed out that the polls suggested a majority did not want him to resign or be removed, Shields said, in effect, too bad, people will just have to understand that he's finished. It was a spectacular display of insular Villager smugness, and I have despised the man ever since.

*The reference may be lost on some of our younger readers. Their staged exchanges on Sixty Minutesare remembered, if at all, at once remove for inspiring the meme "Jane, you ignorant slut."

Feud Turgidson said...

So, this is interesting: multiple reports of a NBCNews and MSNBC female staff ROYALLY PISSED OFF over how they and their coworkers have been working OT to comb thru thousands of hours of never released mostly never even reviewed lead in lead out hot mic videotape and e-vid with Trump on tape, and how NBC - which they "KNOW" from industry reports and from watching Morning Goebbels and the meat puppet playing footsie & BJs with Trump for months means NBC's Big Bosses are playing a double triple or quadruple game here. And so one of them or a small coterie of them scoots the Billy Bush tape over to Fahrenhold (who's been basically a DAILY REGULAR on The Last Word, very arguably the most pro feminist show on a cable network that also has Racheal Maddow FCOL, so do the MATH people.

And now the Comcasters have a choice: release their own newshounds, or watch as their own newshounds feed all the choice cuts to Marty Baron's crew.

Plus I see from CNN's hired of the Buzzfeed crew that the Trump Tape Wars appear to be entering a new phase: compendium competitions.

I'm with AllieG and others: this won't hurt Trump with "his" supporters embedded in the GOP core. But not all the GOPers are pro-GrOPers, so there will be a certain amount of exodus and just as importantly the metastasi is unable to survive outside the GOP culture.

So now: combine these two 'trends', of the GrOPers hardening against el Ryan et al inside the GOP, and taking their frustrations and resentments out ... WHERE? On the streets and in selected ballot boxes, mein freundchen. Some prominant GOP leaders are about to experience hints & allegations on what happened to Eric Cantor. And meanwhile, the NBC dam of Trump enriched heavy water is going to burst without some relief.


My biweekly grocery shopping is on Tuesdays cuz my local emporium specially accommodates us old farts on Tuesdays. The e-flyer from by favorite market contains a special on bulk popcorn. Mmmmmmmm

There will be blood, and the House will be in play.

Maxwell's Demon said...

I agree with you on this. tRump is down to close to his immutable base of support (somewhere near 40% +/-) and that's as low as he goes. But what has happened I think is that he has foreclosed even the slimmest chance he had to win this and we should know petty much for sure after tonight's town hall.

The more interesting question now is, will enough semi-same gopers just not come out to vote and give the Dems a bigger down ballot victory than expected or will Dem complacency one again snatch defeat (Senate and House) from the jaws of victory?

Jimbo said...

We've known for over a year now that Trump's supporters are a majority of GOP likely voters and that they will come out to vote no matter what he says or does so the only thing, the ONLY thing that matters is getting Democrats out to vote, especially in the battleground states. Everything else is just noise. Most likely, neither house will flip so the best we can hope for is a continuing stalemate at least for the next 2 years.

DerFarm said...

I see something quite a bit different from most of the commentators. I absolutely agree that roughly 40% of the vote is Trump's. However, these people are mean, lowminded, vengeful, and self-righteous. I see a lot of split tickets by hard line Trumpistas. Nothing feels better to the self-righteous than to screw over someone while re-inforcing your purity.

KenRight said...


Do we want a candidate who’s groped women but wants to get along with Christian conservative Russia and protect American jobs and our borders, or do we want a candidate who wants to provoke Russia into war, outsource American jobs and have open borders,continue to overthrow secular Arab governments, eg Iraq, Libya, Syria, invite the jihad refugees in--- and harass the women who’ve been much more than groped by her husband?

The choice is yours.

trnc said...

Ken, I'm not voting for either candidate you mentioned. I'm voting for Hillary Clinton.

Jim Snyder said...

I'm with AllieG & Feud.

Well, kinda sorta. Indeed, the Trump vid was dropped to Farenthold by NBC staffers. Story at Chicago Tribune this morning.

Yes, the Morning Consult poll says most Goopers OK with the tape... but why are so many GOP dominoes falling? Why did Kelly Ayotte cut and run?

Every GOP incumbent in a purplish (or worse, blue) state depends on Dem voters crossing over. And Ayotte and Hassan are running neck and neck... so if Ayotte loses even a fraction of those cross-overs, she's toast.

So ... she's in a bind. She cuts Trump loose and mebbe loses TeaBaggers, or she's with Trump, and she loses Dem cross-overs. I suspect that she jumped in the belief that she'd keep most of her Republican base if she cut Trump loose. Remember that she voted before the Morning Consult poll came out.

My guess is that she'd be hosed either way ... the Trump vid puts her in an impossible situation.

Jim Snyder said...

@trnc: "... not voting for either, voting for Hillary ..."

+1

Jim Snyder said...

Meant to add that, like Feud, I am hoping to see a bunch of Gooper Establishment figures to go down at the ballot lever of vengeful Trumpkins who feel betrayed.

OTOH, scuttlebutt has it that at least two more vids will drop Real Soon Now, so it's possible that even Trumpkins have their limits.

However the drop today of the Howard Stern interview in which Trump and Stern drool over Ivanka as "a piece of ass" ... well, I'll spare you Southren incest jokes from my childhood. Let's just say that that revelation could be a feature for Trumpkins, not a bug.

In other news, it's amusing that so many self-identified Christians will extend Christian forgiveness for sexual assaults to a serial predator, but not will not extend the same forgiveness to the woman whose husband cheated on her.

What was that verse about "false prophets", again?

Askin' for a friend.

Green Eagle said...

For years, the absolute, unrepentant level of Republican support, the people who are resistant to all reason and decency, has been put at around 27%, which I think is a fair estimate. So, you are now dealing with the remaining Trump supporters, a large part of whom must be still shell-shocked by what is happening. He is bound to lose a few more of them over the coming days, but I would expect the decline to stall out around 35 or 36%, which is the dead minimum that any Republican Presidential candidate can possibly get, given their forty years of unrelieved propaganda. Still, that would represent a quarter to a third of the Trump supporters who can make any claim to having a will of their own. The rest are lost permanently- they would vote for Charlie Manson if he had a (R) after his name and promised them tax cuts; we are, sad to say, just going to have to wait for them to die off.

Ed Crotty said...

Trump has made clear that his platform is to protect and reinforce white male privilege. Nothing about this changes that.

Gerald Lillpop said...

Again you are wrong. I know republican women who were on the fence but now will not vote tRump. And I know independent women who are now saying it Hillary all the way.

KenRight said...

Crotty

Funny that the Elite of the "white male privileged" of the GOP are and were opposed to Trump who has made it clear his intent is to bring more power to impoverished Euro-American working folks, with a natural run-off to the most deserving loyal non-Euro workers.
I understand your kind is bent on redistribution to non-Euros, domestic and invading, regardless of the price paid by white workers.

Rand Careaga said...

Love yer blog, Ken. It's so clean and uncluttered, with that one entry from four-and-a-half years ago: "This is a test." But hey, white power, amirite?

Dark Avenger said...

Ken Fruit Hoops would rather have a con man in office because he would "protect" conservative Christianity, whatever that entails.

CF2K said...

KenRightDumbfuck, be so good as to remind us who overthrew a secular government in Iraq, and in so doing, set the Middle East burning until today.

Marc McKenzie said...

Oh Ken, Ken....it's always about preserving the White race with you, isn't it?

I swear, you are really itching to drag the white hood and robe out of your closet. I guess that's what you see in Trump--the chance to do so without any consequences.

KenRight said...

Bush with Clinton's approval destroyed Iraq. I was with Trump and Ron Paul against the war then.

Feud Turgidson said...

It. Is. On.: https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785129773337088004?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"Anybody got a match?": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVv94T5LF0c

Earlier today I watched CNN Brian Stetler hosting Barbara Simpson, Jeff Greenfield & Doug Brinkley. DB said Don John has to fish or cut bait on Clenis as Sex Machine, JG said he JG can't imagine any answer to that, but ... Simpson just smiled: Got the impression BS like all women of a certain age already know how to deal with this horsecrap.

So in sum: Don John is on the verge TODAY of
1. taking what everyone in the world who's in the least objective can see is the single most awful hand in post-WWII presidential politics,
2. going with 2 awful pointless 'strategic' options,
3. risking not just his own rep (such as it iss) but his entire business & asset empire, his greasoid sleazy kidz' inheritance & future, but the control of the GOP over the WH for gawd knows how long, the SC for certtainly the rest of my lifetime, and BOTH chambers of Congress.

October 8, 2016 could go down in history as the day Trump went Full Belushi in leading the GOP Straight Into A massive dumpster conflagration.

Jeff Ryan said...

Oh, KenWrong, you have really proven your nimrod bonafides today.

You actually believe Trump has "intentions" beyond the glorification and enrichment of Trump. That's soooo cute! Look everyone, KenWrong is acting like a "political thinker"! Isn't that just the most darling thing you've ever seen?

Jeff Ryan said...

@KenWrong: Vladimir Vladimirovich called. He'd like a blow job. NOW.

Jeff Ryan said...

I would feel confident in saying that anyone paying attention to any poll taken since Friday should just chill the fuck out.

Were the election to be held this Tuesday, yeah, there might be something to learn from this. But it ain't gonna be.

No one has digested this story yet, and certainly not all voters. The feedback loop will increase in frequency, and things are on kind of an accelerating track right now.

One, there are more shoes to drop: Maybe a whole DSW of them. Two, I don't care how hardcore some Trumpalos are, they remain social animals, and when they are treated as pariahs by an ever-growing cohort, they will respond and join the herd of "I didn't sign up for this"-ers. Sure, the bulk of the Trumpalos are sworn idiots and will follow Der Fuhrer into the bunker. They will elbow their way in and light Trump's figurative cigarettes while the B-24s pummel Berlin to ash over their heads. But we are still, to some extent, a society. I suspect a number of husbands are even now being schooled by their "no fucking way" wives. And good on those women.

These things take on lives of their own. They can be predicted. That is why the timing of this was masterful.

sdhays said...

The repercussions are more complex than 1998. The country is more polarized now than it was then, and Clinton knew his conduct was bad and wasn't prepared to sacrifice the party on an altar to his greatness - he worked with the party to both give Democrats a space to disapprove of his conduct while continuing to support him as President. He was still a team player and he was able to rally his team effectively.

When this tape hit, I was a bit surprised at why this was finally the last straw, but now I think I understand. After Trump's terrible debate performance and week-long tirade against a former Miss Universe, the Republican elite were already finally starting to give up on the delusion that Trump could win. (It's true that a disciplined Donald Trump could win, but the real Donald Trump is too spoiled, lazy, and emotional - he chokes and is too stupid to even know he's choking). This tape was a clear opportunity to get on with it and a signal that they had probably already waited too long.

So now we have a situation where Republican-leaning voters have to choose - not just between Hillary and Donald, but between Donald and the Republican elite. This is like two stars orbiting close to each other, spinning faster and faster and closer and closer to the inevitable impact. There will be a lot of fallout over the next few weeks, and most of the fire will be happening inside the Republican tent.

Tl;DR: 1998 was a simpler time and just can't be compared to what's happening now.

Aunt Snow said...

KenRight - your comment assumes facts not in evidence. But then, all your comments do that.

Jim Snyder said...

@KenWhite: Srsly, d00d, I'm curious.

Guessing that many, perhaps most commenters here see you as I do: a white nationalist / supremacist. Perhaps you are affiliated with the KKK / neo-Nazis / alt-right-ers.

Perhaps not.

I speak only for myself, but I'll be surprised should anyone here step up to agree with you. Personally, I find your views revolting-verging-on-evil.

Not to beat around the bush, you're espousing views that are racist, unscientific, a-historical, and unhinged.

Compared to trolls I've seen at other fora, you seem mostly harmless. Tell me, why did you choose this forum to make your racist pitch? What are you trying to achieve?

You can't be trying to persuade this community, because I dare say most of us think you're an idiot and a bigot... guessing that most of us are laughing at you, and thinking something along the lines of "had I been raised in the Duggar family, would I say stoopid sh*t like KenWhite?"

Not to put too fine a point on it, you're persuading no-one.

Why are you wasting your time and ours posting racist sh*t here?

Here, have a soapbox. [provides soapbox]

Tell us everything. Purge the bile from your system.

Jim Snyder said...

@KenWhite: I'll add un-Christian, more like "pagan", to the extent that I understand the Christian Bible.

So what gives?

Grung_e_Gene said...

Trump's been in bed with Putin and his daughter. What a Country!

Jeff Ryan said...

@Jim Snyder: I can't hope to add much, if anything, to your analysis. Mr. KenWrong is probably little better than a chronic bed wetter, someone who has reached what passes for maturity around age 20, and hence has become a semi-professional troll.

Sure, on some planet somewhere he thinks he is actually spouting coherent sentences, though the content reveals he is an all too hip racist. But that's between him and, well, him. I would hope there is no analyst extant that would listen to his ignorant ravings without breaking out in hysterical laughter but, who knows? There are 9/11 truthers, and anti-vaxxers, and blithering idiots and KenWrong.

Just one of those realities we all have to tolerate. Like getting up in the morning every day, walking outside, and saying, "How many times have I told this guy to stop letting his dog spew rancid shit on my lawn?"

Just a part of life. Though, should anyone make a positive ID, piss in his face.

Though I suspect KenWrong would like it. Then again, he's a pathetic troll, and I am just feeding the beast.

Jim Snyder said...

@JeffRyan: yeah, dunno. I was curious because he seems to be taking a different approach than most of the trolls I see elsewhere, who actively disrupt on-going conversations.

Which isn't what our troll does. Is he trying to be part of the community? Trying to proselytize? Thinking he's in the wrong place and using the wrong approach if so.

Or yet something else? Really can't figure what he's after ...

Jeff Ryan said...

@Jim Snyder: Maybe he just wants to prove how ignorant he is.

Article II, section 1, clause 2 states electors cannot be senators or representatives.

But how much you wanna bet he believes in "original intent"?

I find that the louder "strict Constitutionalists" howl, the less chance they've ever read it.

Jim Snyder said...

@JeffRyan: Sorry, I am not getting the reference ("electors" / "original intent"). What does this refer to? Earlier / later post, mebbe?

Jeff Ryan said...

@Jim Snyder: Sorry. Wrong thread. My bad.

Jim Snyder said...

@JeffRyan: our fave Kremlin operative seems to be tongue-tied.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_brigades
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-real-paranoia-inducing-purpose-of-russian-hacks
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/31/world/europe/russia-finland-nato-trolls.html