IF OLD WHITE MEN VOTE, TRUMP TOPPING THE TICKET WON'T HURT THE GOP MUCH

I gather from this New York Times story that Republican insiders are panicking at the prospect that Donald Trump will be their presidential nominee:

... irritation is giving way to panic as it becomes increasingly plausible that Mr. Trump could be the party’s standard-bearer and imperil the careers of other Republicans.

Many leading Republican officials, strategists and donors now say they fear that Mr. Trump’s nomination would lead to an electoral wipeout, a sweeping defeat that could undo some of the gains Republicans have made in recent congressional, state and local elections....

“If he carries this message into the general election in Ohio, we’ll hand this election to Hillary Clinton -- and then try to salvage the rest of the ticket,” said Matt Borges, chairman of the Republican Party there, where Senator Rob Portman is facing a competitive re-election.

Pat Brady, the former state Republican chairman in Illinois, where Senator Mark S. Kirk is also locked in a difficult campaign, was even more direct. “If he’s our nominee, the repercussions of that in this state would be devastating,” Mr. Brady said....

“Senator Portman is a great example I like to use when talking about this,” said Brian Walsh, a Senate campaign veteran. “He’s very well prepared, has tons of cash in the bank, and he got his campaign organized and up and running early. But if we nominate a bad presidential candidate like Trump, senators like Portman or [New Hampshire's] Kelly Ayotte aren’t going to be able to outrun Hillary by that much. And there goes the Senate.”

But when I look at the new Quinnipiac national poll, I see Clinton beating Trump by a mere 6 points. She runs better against Trump than against Marco Rubio, but the difference is not vast:

American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans:

- 47 - 41 percent over Trump...

- Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio's 44 percent...

- Clinton tops Cruz 47 - 42 percent...

- Clinton at 46 percent to Carson's 43 percent....

(Sorry, Bernie fans: Sanders barely does better against Trump -- he wins by 8.)

In a race against Clinton, Trump wins white men by a whopping 57%-31%. He wins senior citizens 46%-39%. He wins men overall 49%-39%. (Trump beats Sanders in all these groups as well, by slightly smaller margins.) In fact, Clinton's margin against Trump in the Real Clear Politics poll average is only 5 points. (Sanders's margin is just 4.2 points.)

White men are going to vote for any Republican, by an overwhelming margin, no matter who the Democratic nominee is. Older voters are almost certain to vote Republican, because they're the whitest voter group and they now see the Democratic Party as the party of those scary nonwhites.

Voting results in non-presidential elections in recent years suggest that Southern voting patterns -- whites monolithically voting Republican -- are gradually spreading to the Midwest. All the smart people think that will magically change in a presidential year. I sure hope so, but I'm not confident.

Hillary Clinton is not well liked. (In the new Quinnipiac poll, her favorable/unfavorable rating is 44%/51%; among men, it's 36%/59%.) Bernie Sanders is in positive territory (44%/31%) -- but Republicans aren't taking him seriously as a potential nominee (which is probably realistic), so opinions of him could change rapidly in the unlikely event that he's the nominee. Also, he'd be vastly outspent in a general election -- he wouldn't avail himself of any super PACs, and huge amounts of billionaire cash would be used against him.

In either case, this is not going to be a Democratic blowout. GOP senators in very white New Hampshire and largely white Ohio aren't doomed even with Trump at the top of the ticket. Old white men will vote GOP no matter what.