Thursday, August 28, 2008


I keep reading that the first two days of the convention were a disaster, but guess what? It's bounce time. Gallup shows an eight-point turnaround in Obama's favor in just three days.

Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin.

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver.... the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's lineup of speakers....

So only a third of the interviewing took place last night? And mostly before the big speeches? This bump is based primarily on the earlier part of the convention?

But that's impossible! The "first two days of the convention were wasted"! They were "McCain's dream"! They were "a big fat missed opportunity"! We "lost two nights"!

My theory? There's a disconnect between the people I've just quoted -- convention attendees, political pros -- and the rest of us, who are watching all of this unfold from the couch, with the remote in hand. The speeches have been wildly uneven, but the ones in prime time have been first-rate. That's what America's seeing, and America's comfort level with an Obama vote is increasing. Apparently they're the right mix of red meat and reassurance.

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