Wednesday, May 04, 2016

CLINTON IS VERY LIKELY TO BEAT TRUMP -- DESPITE THE MEDIA

Donald Trump won Indiana yesterday, and with Ted Cruz dropping out of the race, Trump is really going to be the Republican nominee. The general election polls look awful for Trump -- but hot takers are gonna hot take, so Howard Fineman is up at the Huffington Post with "Here Are 7 Reasons Why Donald Trump Could Really Win In November."

Fineman's reasons are unconvincing -- no, Trump is not going to win Florida, given his off-the-charts unfavorability among Hispanics there, including Cuban-Americans -- but one of the reasons is worth pondering, whether or not it's going to be a game-changer:
Journalistic Weakness. It comes in two flavors. One is false equivalence. Reporters have yet to fully examine Trump’s record, especially the details of his business dealings and personal life, but soon enough his story will be yoked with and compared to Clinton’s, which will make it easier for Trump to slide by in the resulting din.

The second flavor is the media’s hunger for an audience. The closer Trump gets to the White House, the more frightening he becomes, the more desperate his enemies become -- the more eyeballs are focused on smartphones and TV sets.

That means more billions in “free” media for Trump.
"Reporters have yet to fully examine Trump’s record, especially the details of his business dealings and personal life, but soon enough his story will be yoked with and compared to Clinton’s" -- that's really going to happen, folks. Yes, the Clinton campaign and its surrogates will bring up Trump University and Trump's bankruptcies and Trump's mob ties and history of racial discrimination -- but these stories will reported with the asterisk "On the other hand, the Clinton Foundation blah blah blah blah blah," or "In the 1990s, Mrs. Clinton's cattle-future trading was investigated...." Both Sides Do It, so the press will feel the need to yoke every Trump scandal to a Clinton scandal. This tendency is likely to be extended even to such matters as Trump's racism: Yes, Trump calls Mexicans "rapists" and wants to ban Muslims, but Hillary Clinton said "off the reservation" that one time.

And on Fineman's second point, it's quite possible that we'll still get comment-free unedited coverage of Trump rallies -- more so than of Clinton's -- simply because he's better television. I'm not sure it will matter -- there'll be saturation coverage of both campaigns -- but I think, on balance, when the wonks run their analyses of the 2016 general election campaign, it'll be Clinton, not Trump, whose coverage is more negative, by a considerable degree, if only because so much coverage of Trump involves stepping back and just letting him hold forth. This, of course, would be a continuation of a pattern we've already seen in the primaries:



I still think Clinton will win -- but the press will keep the race close.

7 comments:

Buford said...

Clinton in a Landslide....it won't be close...if I am wrong, then I will eat all of my vegetables...

Victor said...

Cruz is out?!?!
YAY!!!

So, tRUMP is it.

The next 6 months will be the GOP's worst nightmare - and, as a consequence, ours, too!

Feud Turgidson said...

Trump's production costs alone of the Donald T. Trump Presents the Donard T. Trump Coronation in Cleveland - if it even happens; I fully expect Trump to try to move this inevitable disaster to some more 'securable' venue, or change it in some radical way that doesn't require him to go there: maybe leave the 'party rally' and 'policy convention' components there, at least in name, while moving the site for the OTT gold brocade on rhinestone-studded coronation ceremony glamor Xtravogasma to some more commodious and fire-retardant environs - maybe to near his Club Mar-a-Largo-Factotum.

He's got this property now, see; and it's golden: it'll cost the Republican establishment billions to loose his grip on it, and not even then.

Ernest Lamonica said...

Both Sides? Ron Fournier will have a hard on for 6 months?

Unknown said...

Nope. Sec. Clinton merely needs to win the solid blue states and Florida, which is getting so blue that the Cuban community has abandoned He, Trump. Please read this article. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-republican-electoral-map-20160502-story.html
It's going to be a l-o-n-g six months with the TV knuckleheads and the bloggers who know better presenting bogus scenarios about how He, Trump has a chance. The general election is over just as the DNC nomination race was over when Sec. Clinton committed to running.

tcg said...

Don't get too carried away with that rational thinking! I think there are plenty of people who do not care about **any** of Trump's schemes, cheats, bankruptcies, possible crimes, environmental defilement, philanderings, ignorance and bullheadedness. They are cheering for it. Exposing the truth means nothing to these people. They are bloodyminded, pure and simple.

Blackstone said...

No way either party wins losing 3 of the 4 big states. The GOP's only chance is to be competitive in Florida and they aren't. As an aside, how many Hispanic voters are there in Texas and has anyone polled Texas lately?