Monday, May 02, 2016


A Republican congressman from Florida says he's not sure whether he'll vote for his own party's presidential candidate in November:
Rep. David Jolly of Florida, a Republican running for Senate in the state, says he doesn’t know if he’s going to vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in November.

“So, I’m gonna tell you something you rarely hear in elected official say, I don’t know,” Jolly told AM970 The Answer’s Effective Radio when asked what he’s going to do in the presidential election. “I truly don’t know.”
Hmmm ... what could be upsetting this Floridian who wants to run for a U.S. Senate seat on the GOP line? Could it be this?
Donald Trump is the catalyst who could force a decisive break between Miami-Dade County’s influential Cuban-American voters and the Republican Party, a new poll has found.

Local Cuban Americans dislike Trump so much -- and are increasingly so accepting of renewed U.S.-Cuba ties pushed by Democratic President Barack Obama -- that Trump’s likely presidential nomination might accentuate the voters’ political shift away from the GOP, according to the survey shared with the Miami Herald and conducted by Dario Moreno, a Coral Gables pollster and a Florida International University associate politics professor.

Thirty-seven percent of respondents supported Trump, a number that is still higher than the 31 percent who backed Clinton -- but also “the lowest in history that any potential Republican candidate polls among this traditionally loyal demographic,” according to Moreno. He added that the results put likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton within “striking distance” of winning over the influential voting demographic....

Moreno surveyed 400 likely Miami-Dade Cuban-American voters from April 21-23, conducting more than three-fourths of the interviews in Spanish. His results mirror those from a national poll conducted last month by Latino Decisions, a firm that has worked for Clinton, on behalf of the pro-immigrant America’s Voice organization. That poll found, among other things, that 73 percent of Florida Hispanic voters have a “very unfavorable” opinion of Trump.
Could it be that in combinaion with this?
Even though a whopping 42 percent of Florida voters have a "very unfavorable" view of Hillary Clinton and more see her image negatively than positively, the likely Democratic presidential nominee today easily beats either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz in Florida, according to the latest tracking poll by the Republican-leaning Associated Industries of Florida. Get this: Among Hispanics (about 14 percent of the electorate and this polling sample), Trump is viewed negatively by 87!!!! percent.
A memo from Ryan Tyson of Associated Industries of Florida elaborates:
Amongst Hispanics, who will make up ~14% of the general electorate in Florida, Trump is -77 (10/87), and no, that is not a typo. Trump is also underwater with Cubans by 60% (17/77).
I was expecting Trump to alienate non-Cuban Hispanic voters, but I didn't realize that so many Cuban-Americans would be equally repulsed by him. Jolly is right to want to run as fast as he can away from Trump.


Tom Hilton said...

We children of the cold war have to enjoy the (potential) historical irony of Cuban-Americans going overwhelmingly Democratic the same year a Democratic President normalizes relations with Cuba.

mlbxxxxxx said...

So the combo of Obama and Trump puts Cuban-Americans in play. Heh. Did not see that one coming. Don't think I've mentioned lately how much I'm enjoying this primary season. It seems to get better every day, though I'd greatly appreciate if Bernie would accept reality with grace and good will. Other than that, it's really going kind of great, Loki be praised.

Hamilton said...

Over the past few months of non-stop craziness I thought I'd become immune to being surprised. Then I read this.

Amazing. It'll be especially interesting to see how these numbers play out in November. The rending of garments and fitful wailing from the Republicans over this development will be historic.

ransomweaver said...

Lol, care to revisit this now that Trump has accused Cruz's dad of consorting with Lee Harvey Oswald?

Sergio said...

There are more and mor Puerto Ricans in Florida. We are more liberal than Cubans and would probably like Clinton and hate Trump because of his comments about Mexicans. We have been among the most vocal critics of Trump.