Monday, April 25, 2016


The new GW Battleground Poll is raising eyebrows:
In a head-to-head matchup of each party’s frontrunner, Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump by only 3 percentage points nationally (46 to 43; 11 percent undecided).
That's worrisome -- but please note that the poll claims Clinton would beat Trump among Hispanics by only 17 points, 52%-35% (13% undecided). That would mean that Trump would do better among Hispanics than Mitt Romney did in 2012 (Barack Obama beat Romney 71%-27%). Show of hands: Who (outside of Trump Nation) seriously thinks this will happen? (The recent Latino Decisions poll put the Clinton-Trump margin at 76%-11%, which seems realistic given the 2012 numbers and Trump's rhetoric.)

Only 5% of Battleground Poll poll respondents were Hispanic; 77% were white and 12% black. That's a serious underrepresentation of Hispanics and overrepresentation of whites (Hispanics were 10.8% of the 2012 electorate, while whites were only 71.1%; the white portion of the electorate is expected to drop to 69% this year).

Also, the Harvard IOP Poll has Clinton beating Trump 61%-25% among 18-to-29-year-olds. The Battleground Poll has Clinton beating Trump by only 49%-42% margin among 18-to-34-year-olds. Yes, I know about the "Trump Bros" phenomenon, but the Harvard numbers seem a lot more plausible.

So sorry, I don't trust this Battleground Poll. Believe it if you choose.


M. Bouffant said...

No idea how (or where) G.W.U. polled, but I'll bet the Hispanics they did poll were highly unrepresentative of the majority of Hispanics.

KenRight said...

If Trump goes full isolationist on The Crooked One he will be doing hard core populism, America Firstism and authentic left progressivism a big favor. Not to mention a large acreage of the world from the Mideast to Eastern Europe.

Kenneth Fair said...

I really wish pollsters would use a dash of common sense ("Will more Hispanics vote for Trump than Romney?") before releasing obviously bogus results like this.

Steve M. said...

If Trump goes full isolationist

Amazing how you and a million MSM pundits heard Trump say he wasn't a fan of the Iraq War and completely missed all the talk about bombing the shit out of ISIS and taking their oil.

AllieG said...

Since I have so often criticized you for cherry-picking polls that looked bad for Democrats, a modest sense of honesty compels me to praise you for taking a Republican-skewed poll and dissecting it.

Feud Turgidson said...

It's like spring and baseball and the throwing out of the first ceremonial ball combined with the horribly mangled MLB New York review of the first managerial challenge and the first conniption fit and toss out.

I predict a record number of pre-skewed polls released from now into November, in order to provide cover for the magic of all the record vote caging, fraud and theft.

This particular skew is an early working of the non-existent refs. This time around the GOP is gonna be all 'Four steps is our MOVE!'

MrsTarquinBiscuitbarrel said...

Given how sky-high tuition is at GWU, it would not be surprising if Latinos were underrepresented in the group's polling community. Haven't looked it up, but I seriously doubt that Hispanic students are enrolled in great numbers at my non-Hispanic husband's alma mater, George Washington U.