Wednesday, December 02, 2015

IF OLD WHITE MEN VOTE, TRUMP TOPPING THE TICKET WON'T HURT THE GOP MUCH

I gather from this New York Times story that Republican insiders are panicking at the prospect that Donald Trump will be their presidential nominee:
... irritation is giving way to panic as it becomes increasingly plausible that Mr. Trump could be the party’s standard-bearer and imperil the careers of other Republicans.

Many leading Republican officials, strategists and donors now say they fear that Mr. Trump’s nomination would lead to an electoral wipeout, a sweeping defeat that could undo some of the gains Republicans have made in recent congressional, state and local elections....

“If he carries this message into the general election in Ohio, we’ll hand this election to Hillary Clinton -- and then try to salvage the rest of the ticket,” said Matt Borges, chairman of the Republican Party there, where Senator Rob Portman is facing a competitive re-election.

Pat Brady, the former state Republican chairman in Illinois, where Senator Mark S. Kirk is also locked in a difficult campaign, was even more direct. “If he’s our nominee, the repercussions of that in this state would be devastating,” Mr. Brady said....

“Senator Portman is a great example I like to use when talking about this,” said Brian Walsh, a Senate campaign veteran. “He’s very well prepared, has tons of cash in the bank, and he got his campaign organized and up and running early. But if we nominate a bad presidential candidate like Trump, senators like Portman or [New Hampshire's] Kelly Ayotte aren’t going to be able to outrun Hillary by that much. And there goes the Senate.”
But when I look at the new Quinnipiac national poll, I see Clinton beating Trump by a mere 6 points. She runs better against Trump than against Marco Rubio, but the difference is not vast:
American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans:

- 47 - 41 percent over Trump...

- Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio's 44 percent...

- Clinton tops Cruz 47 - 42 percent...

- Clinton at 46 percent to Carson's 43 percent....
(Sorry, Bernie fans: Sanders barely does better against Trump -- he wins by 8.)

In a race against Clinton, Trump wins white men by a whopping 57%-31%. He wins senior citizens 46%-39%. He wins men overall 49%-39%. (Trump beats Sanders in all these groups as well, by slightly smaller margins.) In fact, Clinton's margin against Trump in the Real Clear Politics poll average is only 5 points. (Sanders's margin is just 4.2 points.)

White men are going to vote for any Republican, by an overwhelming margin, no matter who the Democratic nominee is. Older voters are almost certain to vote Republican, because they're the whitest voter group and they now see the Democratic Party as the party of those scary nonwhites.

Voting results in non-presidential elections in recent years suggest that Southern voting patterns -- whites monolithically voting Republican -- are gradually spreading to the Midwest. All the smart people think that will magically change in a presidential year. I sure hope so, but I'm not confident.

Hillary Clinton is not well liked. (In the new Quinnipiac poll, her favorable/unfavorable rating is 44%/51%; among men, it's 36%/59%.) Bernie Sanders is in positive territory (44%/31%) -- but Republicans aren't taking him seriously as a potential nominee (which is probably realistic), so opinions of him could change rapidly in the unlikely event that he's the nominee. Also, he'd be vastly outspent in a general election -- he wouldn't avail himself of any super PACs, and huge amounts of billionaire cash would be used against him.

In either case, this is not going to be a Democratic blowout. GOP senators in very white New Hampshire and largely white Ohio aren't doomed even with Trump at the top of the ticket. Old white men will vote GOP no matter what.

15 comments:

AllieG said...

Dear Steve: Once again you cite a Quinnipiac poll and once again I note that it's sample of registered voters includes more Republicans than Democrats. More people are registered as Democrats than Republicans. The poll has an even worse underweighting of registered independents. It is my belief they are seeking more Republican answers due to the still crowded field requiring a larger sample to measure the also-rans. But if Clinton leads all comers in a survey which has more Republicans than Democrats, she's in better (not great, better) shape than you think.

Victor said...

What @AllieG said!

@AllieG, from your mouth, to the FSM's ears!

Ten Bears said...

Wow! The Retards are realizing they've been throwing elections to the Democratic Party and are concerned it could spell their demise. Where have I heard that before...

Unknown said...

Steve M., gotta say I'm with AllieG & Victor on this one, but not only for what they (correctly) note.

Go back to the last presidential cycle going in to the GOP primary season: pollstering said there were at least 2 and maybe more who would beat Obama in the general.

Go back further to early spring 2008 when it was clear old man McCain was going to win the GOP nomination. At that point pollstering said McCain was up 6 pts on candidate Obama.

Steve M. said...

Actually, Obama led in the vast majority of polls vs. McCain in 2008 and 2007, at least after mid-January '07 (source).

Steve M. said...

Also: The most recent PPP poll has Clinton up by 1 over Trump. The most recent CNN poll has her up by 5 over Trump. Yes, McClatchy gives her a 15-point lead, and NBC/WSJ an 8-point lead, but Fox gives Trump a 5-point lead. That's why I cite the RCP average (which has now been recalculated, in Trump's favor, by RCP).

We're not in a Democratic moment, the way we were in '06 and '08. And my point is that Hillary is not going to win a '64/'72/'84-level landslide. So I stand by what I've written.

Stellours said...

(Sorry, Bernie fans: Sanders barely does better against Trump -- he wins by 8.)

I thought 8 was more than 6 ? But then math is hard sometimes.

Rand Careaga said...

I'm white by most metrics, and will be sixty-four when the next presidential election comes round. Do I hafta vote for the Republican?

Steve M. said...

8 is more than 6. But Bernie is extremely unlikely to win the nomination, and if he somehow does, remember that the Republican character-assassination shitstorm against him hasn't even gotten under way. A few Democrats are resilient enough to withstand one of those -- Obama, the Clintons, Pelosi. Bernie hasn't even been subjected to it yet.

Luigi said...

Clinton is not well liked because nincompoops like this blog and the big orange cheeto continually pummel her over stupid past transgressions or imagined ones. Get off your high horse and realize that any Democrat cannot win without lots of money. And lots of money includes Wall Street. Yes, she f'd up when she voted for the Iraq invasion, but everyone at that time was cheer leading "War, War, War" (except me) so don't throw stones or you will all crack your glass houses.

You want a Republican in the White House? Keep nitpicking Hillary to death and you will achieve your ambition. I am tired of so called liberals putting down our best chance to continue the progress we made. You are not liberals. Call yourselves progressives. That sounds whiny enough to suit you.

Of course, the NYT article actually talked about how Trump would bring all the Senate and House races down to where the Dems could win in a landslide. But, bad news gets clicks. So, keep it up.

Ten Bears said...

Sorry Luigi, but Jeb? v Jeb? in a Dress! is not a choice.

Sweet Sue said...

Well, I'm an old white woman married to an old white man and we'd both rather pour lye into our eyes than vote Republican.
What Luigi (Bravo) said and then some.

Steve M. said...

Luigi, I don't think you're going to find that "Hillary is no better than a Republican" nonsense here. I agree with you that she's infinitely better than any Republican. I'm not some dudebro who's never going to forgive her for voting for the Iraq War -- what you said about that is exactly right. What I'm saying about her here is that she's not inspiring much enthusiasm -- but that's not how I personally feel. I'm very ready to vote for her. I just worry that not enough other voters are.

Unknown said...

If anyone wants to vote for Hillary to keep Trump or Cruz out of the White House - and they can withstand the stench - they'll get no criticism from me. Because those guys are truly scary.

However, anyone who thinks she's going to progress us towards anything but more war and more crony capitalism is a goddamned fool.

Philo Vaihinger said...

White men are going to vote for any Republican, by an overwhelming margin, no matter who the Democratic nominee is. Older voters are almost certain to vote Republican, because they're the whitest voter group and they now see the Democratic Party as the party of those scary nonwhites.

Yup.

And why does the demographic that depends more crucially on the legacy of FDR than anyone else see the Democrats that way, as a party controlled by people who hate them?

Who made that happen?

Can't imagine.