Um, I don't think so. Two new polls have been conducted entirely after the attacks -- and Trump leads both. First, New Hampshire:
After losing a few percentage points in a WBUR survey two weeks ago, Trump is more firmly on top in the latest poll ... with 23 percent of likely GOP primary voters choosing him or leaning his way.Trump is 10 points ahead of Ben Carson and Marco Rubio, who are tied for second at 13%. Yes, Carson is slipping, but still -- he's in second place, in a state that usually embraces moderates and is cool toward members of the religious right.
... Live telephone interviews were conducted Nov. 14-15.
And in Florida:
Fla poll: Trump 36%, Rubio 18%, Carson 15%, Cruz 10%, Bush 9%This survey was conducted November 15 and 16.
A newly released poll of likely Florida Republican primary voters by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative shows Donald Trump with a two-to-one advantage over everybody else ...
And in a national Morning Consult poll conducted mostly after the attacks (November 13-16), it's Trump 38%, Carson 19%, Rubio and Cruz 7%, Bush 6%.
And yet we're still reading the likes of this:
Donald Trump and Ben Carson have demonstrated more staying power than anyone predicted. But now, after the terrorist attacks on an American ally, Republican elders think their party’s flirtation with inexperience is nearing its end.Yeah, keep dreaming.
The reemergence of foreign policy atop the Republican agenda will force voters to reevaluate the outsider candidates, particularly as both Trump and Carson display a lack of knowledge about national security and the terrorist threat, party stalwarts said.
... Indeed, in interviews with current and former GOP chairs, veteran operatives, lobbyists and strategists, the long-held conviction that neither Trump nor Carson will win the Republican nomination has only strengthened since the attacks in Paris last week.
What has me terrified is the possibility that Ann Coulter might have been right on the night of the attacks:
They can wait if they like until next November for the actual balloting, but Donald Trump was elected president tonight.— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) November 14, 2015
We all assume that Trump can't possibly win next November, but a few months ago we all assumed he couldn't sustain his lead in the Republican race any longer than Herman Cain did four years ago. "Trump can't win a general election" could be the new "Trump can't win the primaries."
Why am I worried? Look at the Clinton-Trump matchup polling in states with a lot of electoral votes that traditionally choose a Democratic presidential candidate -- like Florida in the poll I just cited:
Hillary Clinton ... continues to trail in head-to-head matchups with the Republican frontrunners, trailing Carson 50 percent to 41 percent, and Trump 49 percent to 41 percent.According to the Real Clear Politics average, Trump leads Clinton by 2.4% in Florida. Trump and Clinton are tied in Pennsylvania. Clinton has a slim lead in Ohio.
And in a new pre- and post-Paris Quinnipiac poll of Colorado (in which, it should be noted, Trump is in third place, but Carson leads), Clinton trails all polled Republicans by wide margins:
- Rubio over Clinton 52 - 36 percent;I'm calling this now: If Rubio is the nominee, Clinton will lose. And if Trump or Carson is the nominee, she'll still have a fight on her hands, one she might not win.
- Carson leads Clinton 52 - 38 percent;
- Cruz tops Clinton 51 - 38 percent;
- Trump beats Clinton 48 - 37 percent.