Wednesday, August 12, 2015


As you may already know, a new CNN poll of Iowa Republicans not only has Donald Trump in the lead but shows Ben Carson roaring into second place, while actual politicians straggle behind:
Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He's most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference with 14%, bumping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had held the top spot in most recent public polling in Iowa, down to third place with 9%. Walker is nearly even with a slew of other candidates....

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows the top three at 8%, with businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both at 7%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied at 5% with senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less.
Yup: Jeb's at 5%. He's tied for seventh place.

But if you look at the top two by gender, you'll see there's a huge gap:

* Donald Trump gets 27% of men and 15% of women.
* Ben Carson gets 10% of men and 20% of women.

In fact, Scott Walker is #2 among men (12%), but back in the pack among women (4%). On the other hand Carly Fiorina is third among women (11%), but far back (4%) among men.

So if you're keeping score, Iowa Republican women's top three choices are all non-pols. For men, it's only two out of three, but their top choice gets more than twice as much support as their #2, Walker, and another non-pol is in third place.

In terms of conventional politics, Iowa Republicans are clearly going rogue, at least for now. If there's an alternative candidate who might supplant Trump if he ever fades, it doesn't seem likely to be Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Christie, Cruz, or Paul. It could be Walker, but it's more likely to be Carson.

There's a Democratic gender gap in Iowa, too, according to CNN:
The first CNN/ORC poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton firmly in the lead in the state that kicks off the nation's nominating contests, holding a 50% to 31% lead over upstart Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Vice President Joe Biden, who has yet to decide whether to make a run for presidency, lands in third place with 12%, with the rest of the field at 1% or less.

... Among women, Clinton tops Sanders by more than 30 points, 58% to 26%. Among men, the two are even: 38% back Clinton, 37% Sanders.
So, to sum up:

In Iowa, Republican men, Republican women, and Democratic men are going rogue -- although Democratic men are really only split on going rogue, and everyone going rogue in the Democratic Party is actually choosing a seasoned politician whose views would be well within the pale in any European country, while Republicans are divided between men who prefer a braying sexist pig who knows bugger-all about the issues and women who prefer a mumbling non-sexist who knows bugger-all about government. Make of all this what you will.


Charon04 said...

Walker could be paying a high price for opposing any abortion, even if the life of the mother is at risk.

mlbxxxxxx said...

Have long thought Carson would make a dandy VP nominee and I'd say he's looking like the man to beat for VEEP. He is turning out to be just as attractive to evangelical voters as I expected. Iowa, of course, is big evangelical territory. I'd still put my money on Jeb for the top spot, but I think Carson will be at number two regardless of who ends up on top. I don't think he's quite got the mojo to be number one, though. Apparently, he got a pretty good bump from the debate. The only thing I can figure is he came out as pro-torture which, of course, the baggers love to hear. Otherwise, he seemed kind of lackluster to me. Of course, I'm not his audience.

joannis said...

Oh no, not more Iowan white man's guilt, pulleaze!

Victor said...

It's 9:44am, is it too early to have a drink?

I mean, it's after noon somewhere!!!!