Wednesday, August 06, 2008


Hell, even I'm happy about the new polls, and I've been just about the gloomiest pro-Obama blogger around. I don't care about the ridiculous Dems-are-doomed notes in the stories ("Trouble Signs in Obama's Lead") -- when Obama is up by 5% in the latest Time poll, after being up by 5% in the last Time poll, and leads by 6 in the new CBS poll, after leading by 6 in the last CBS poll, he's, um, sustaining his lead. Got it?

Two interesting stats. From CBS:

Just 20 percent of those surveyed say Obama is "very likely" to be an effective commander in chief, down 4 percentage points from last month. McCain is seen as "very likely" to be effective by 38 percent of respondents, down eight points from last month but still significantly ahead of Obama.

We're supposed to read that as a sign that Obama's trip failed, and maybe it is a sign of that, but what's far more interesting to me is that McCain's C-in-C numbers are dropping faster than Obama's. Why? Why are they dropping at all? Well, both polls were conducted starting July 31, just after the Britney ad hit, and ending August 4 (Time) or August 5 (CBS). I think the problem is the McCain campaign's clownishness. I think he looked serious to 8% more people before this clown period than he does now.

And there's this, from Time:

Asked which candidate is most likeable, Obama beats McCain 65% to 20%....

I don't have comparable numbers from the previous Time poll, so I don't know if this is a decline -- but wasn't McCain supposed to be likeable, too? Shouldn't this be a tad less lopsided? I wonder if McCain's coming off as cranky and not funny at all -- I confess I thought this stuff would work, but apparently the act is bombing.


UPDATE: Hey, Tom Daschle -- there is no "poll dip." See paragraph #1 above. Relax. We're winning.

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