The USC Dornsife poll is back this year, and so far the results are a bit different: Joe Biden is currently at 52.73%, while Trump is at 40.32%. That's more than a 12-point Biden lead.
And USC Dornsife is reporting daily numbers. The numbers above were posted yesterday. The numbers from Sunday, August 23 -- before the Republican convention started -- were Biden 52.23%, Trump 40.45%. So Biden has gained a tiny amount of support during the convention, while Trump has slipped by a similar amount.
I don't know whether to believe these numbers. This poll wasn't accurate four years ago. But the pollsters certainly can't be accused of having dismissed the possibility of a Trump win and building that bias into their approach.
Four years ago, an explanation of USC Dornsife's polling method was posted on its website:
The poll’s probability approach sought to measure participants’ level of certainty in their plans to vote for the candidates, rated on a scale of 0 to 100, and the intensity of their commitment to a candidate, rather than simply their preference for one candidate or asking them outright whom they would vote for in an election. It is based on a methodology used by the RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll that was successful in 2012....If the methodology hasn't changed, and Biden is well ahead, that suggests that pro-Biden (or at least anti-Trump) voters are more intense in their feelings than Trump supporters -- which is contrary to what many observers believe.
The numbers showed Trump ahead for most of the poll’s run.
I think that's a good sign.
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