Monday, August 31, 2020


I don't think the master narrative of American politics is capable of accommodating this, so the media will probably just ignore it:
The latest Military Times poll shows a continued decline in active-duty service members’ views of President Donald Trump and a slight but significant preference for former Vice President Joe Biden in the upcoming November election among troops surveyed.

The results, collected before the political conventions earlier this month, appear to undercut claims from the president that his support among military members is strong thanks to big defense budget increases in recent years and promised moves to draw down troops from overseas conflict zones...

In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view....

Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office.

And here's how the troops' opinion of Trump has changed over time:

If you're wondering how the horserace numbers looked in 2016, here you go. Not only was Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 20 points in October of that year, but even Gary Johnson was beating her.

This doesn't just rebut Trump's claim that the troops love him because he got them raises and increased the military budget. It contradicts everything we've been told about Democrats and the military since 1968. This year, the troops aren't automatically concluding that the Republican candidate is the only true patriot and the Democrat is the anti-American traitor.

In a better media environment, this would be a big story. But I assume mainstream journalists will find it so counterintuitive that they'll just pretend it's not happening.

(Hat tip: Kyle Griffin, Tom Hilton, Joshua Holland.)

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