Tuesday, August 11, 2020


Joe Biden announced today that Kamala Harris will be his running mate -- and almost immediately some people were imagining a Donald Trump countermove:

As I said last month, I don't see it -- Haley was the woman who removed the Confederate flag from her state capitol's grounds while Trump is the guy who's defending Confederate monuments; also, Tucker Carlson despises her.

And although Haley is a Christian now, she's a convert, and not one of European descent. Even if evangelicals (and racists) would accept her on the ticket, they'd regard her as a comedown from Mike Pence. I don't believe Trump will replace Pence unless he can swap in someone who's seen as more of an evangelical than Pence. (Maybe Trump's favorite preacher, Paula White, would fit the bill.)

Trump worries about losing evangelical support even though it's obvious to every observer that evangelicals are sticking with him. We know Trump is still afraid of losing support from this bloc because there's no other explanation for his June 1 Bible-waving photo op.

And here's a curious fact that may also be relevant: As Axios's Jonathan Swan noted a couple of days ago, in Trump's preparation for the 2016 general election debates, the role of Hillary Clinton was played by ... Chris Christie.

Do you understand this? Did Trump really know no one who was gender-appropriate for that task?

But Trump doesn't appear to like spending a lot of time around older women, or even women over 40. Apart from Kellyanne Conway and his surgically smoothed wife, who in Trump's inner circle is both female and as old as Haley (48) or older?

There are some women in Trump's cabinet -- Betsy DeVos, Elaine Chao, CIA director Gina Haspel -- but they don't seem to spend much time with Trump. As a running mate and possible VP, Haley would.

I think Trump still sees himself as a dashing young stud. Apart from other considerations, I imagine, on some level, that Trump believes Haley is too old for him.

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