Tuesday, February 11, 2020


The New Hampshire primary is today. South Carolina's primary is at the end of the month, and we know what Republicans have planned there:
State Republican leaders in South Carolina are urging GOP voters to vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the state's Feb. 29 Democratic primary.

The plan — orchestrated by Greenville GOP chairman Nate Leupp and several other prominent Republican Party leaders — revolves around GOP leadership's belief that Sanders poses the least amount of challenge to President Trump in November's general election....
Why aren't Republicans doing something similar in New Hampshire today? One reason is that South Carolina's primary is completely open -- Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary. New Hampshire's is partially open -- you can vote in a party primary if you're not registered with any party, but you can't vote in the Democratic primary if you're a Republican.

But that still leave a lot of potential voters to sabotage the Democrats. According to the state of New Hampshire, 42% of the state's voters are unaffiliated. (Only 29% are Republicans and 28% are Democrats.) In the 2016 Republican primary, 42% of the voters were unaffiliated, according to a CNN exit poll.

So why not try to sabotage the New Hampshire primary? The obvious explanation is that South Carolina won't have a Republican primary this year -- the state GOP canceled it on Trump's behalf last year -- while the New Hampshire Republican primary will still take place.

But so what? Trump will cruise to victory in New Hampshire today. The latest poll shows him leading his one remaining challenger, former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld, 90% to 7%. So why not spare a few votes for a little sabotage?

I think it's because Trump's tender ego won't allow it. He can't bear the thought that he might win the primary 80%-20% or 70%-30%. (Remember, registered Republicans can't cross over, and nearly all of them will vote for him.)

Trump campaigned in New Hampshire last night, for no apparent reason. This tweet is not entirely facetious:

I have no idea if the sort of vote sabotage they're planning in South Carolina actually works. But it won't be tried in New Hampshire today, because Trump is too emotionally weak to allow it.

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