Tuesday, February 11, 2020


A new Monmouth University poll tells us that, contrary to Trumpworld boasting, most Americans really don't want the president to win a second term.
Just over 4 in 10 (42%) registered voters feel that Trump should be reelected, while a majority (55%) say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office.
Americans want a new president. However, they don't expect to get what they want.
About two-thirds of American voters believe that Trump will definitely (27%) or probably (39%) get reelected in November. Just 22% say he will probably lose to the Democrat and only 6% say he will definitely lose to the Democrat. Republicans are brimming with confidence – 59% say reelection is definite and 34% probable – while Democrats are not so certain about their chances – just 11% say their nominee will definitely beat Trump and another 44% say it is probable that Trump will lose. On the other side of the coin, 38% of Democrats actually think it is more likely than not that Trump will win a second term. Just 4% of Republicans think Trump will lose to the Democrat.
Most Americans want Trump out but don't believe that most of their fellow voters do, or don't believe that he can be removed through electoral means, or don't trust the Democrats to beat him.

Meanwhile, at the PredictIt betting market, we see these two sets of current prices:

By a large margin, participants believe Democrats won't win the presidency -- and by an even larger margin, they believe the Democratic candidate will win the popular vote.

The results of the 2000 and 2016 election have made an anti-democratic outcome seem like business as usual rather than an outrage. And the loud, braying propaganda of Team Trump has the anti-Trump majority believing that it's isolated and outnumbered.

All this makes me worry that if Trump cheats his way to another win, America will just shrug. After all, we expected no less.

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