Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 23, 2016
If you won't listen to me, listen to the numbers guy. Okay?
Sunday, July 24, 2016
TO EVERYONE WHO THINKS I'M A PATHETIC EEYORE FOR BELIEVING THAT TRUMP COULD WIN
If you won't listen to me, listen to the numbers guy. Okay?
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14 comments:
Not sure Y U think we're not listening or paying attention, Steve.
But running around chckenhead cut off or pants on fire 4 months in advance isn't a viable strategy.
I'm currently thinking that Josh Marshall's (and others) thing connecting Trump to Putin could be b a very big thing.
@Feud Turgidson: I hope you're right, but I feel like it's so beyond the pale that it's going to be treated as conspiracy theory stuff, and besides IOKIYAR.
Preparing for the worst is a prudent course of action, though I'm not sure folks have any idea how bad it can get.
The Y2K nuts had it right, they just didn't quite get their grubby little fingers wrapped around it: History, if there is a history, will mark the appointment of a frat-boy scion of an old school Robber Baron convicted of violating the Trading with the Enemies Act Hitler financing families by the unelected judges of an ideologically stacked activist court to the highest office in the land as The End of America. We are where we are on momentum, and the grace and dignity of said frat-boy's successor, but never-the-less momentum, momentum that is rapidly running out.
Welcome to the future. Isn't it exciting 😠?
Even on the Right Now option, 538's numbers give the election chances to Hillary at 55%. Their Polls Plus has her at 60% chance to win. But anything could happen and we need to work to make sure it happens the way it should. Far better that Donald Trump is stomped down into the ground with an historic loss that Michael Dukakis looks at in pity.
You are a noted Eeyore, Steve, but that doesn't mean you're wrong or right. For that matter, Silver's recent record is spotty.
It is folly to draw conclusions until the Democratic convention bump.
Paul Montgomery: Amen on noting that Nate Silver has been a bit dodgy of late. 538 has also adopted the annoying habit of not just equivocating between the parties, but also writing approvingly of Trump's "tactics" and "strategy" when the words they actually wanted are "racism" and "fascism." It's sickening and I am about to give up on them. I cannot imagine Silver, in 2008, wasting this much time trying to find a way to pretend McCain was winning if it was a 60-40 race. Come the fuck on.
He's odds of winning are about the same as spinning a cylider contianing one bullet, holdng the revolver to your head and pulling the trigger.
The nominee of either major party CAN win. That's always true. However, only 50 percent ever do. If Trump wins, well, America will have chosen its dystopia. Maybe that's what people really want. But I don't think so. I also think Nate is debating a straw man. Who doesn't think it's a close race right now? To say it's a close race with Clinton ahead is actually what 538 is saying.
@Pragmatic Id: More like two bullets, actually, plus a fraction. It's not a game you want to play if you can't afford to lose.
@Steve: I don't think you're being an Eeyore at all on this one. It's if people think Trump can't win that he has his best chance.
You are correct and you will make arrogant mediocrities like PM Carpenter look like the fools they are.
Sanders people should join Trump right now since wikileaks has exposed their man never had a chance. The fix was in--and did you hear the dangerous Tim Kaine attempting to bait Trump and menace Russia and Putin at the same time with his son's entry into NATO?
Vote for Clinton/Kaine if you want World War Three, and thanks to wikileaks for exposing the utter corrupt nature of the Dem. Party Machine.
KenRight - we'd almost given up hope! Your family misses you. Please take your meds and call us!
@KenRight: How much do the Russians pay for posting anti-Clinton comments on liberal websites?
I've been warning against complacency amongst Democrats for a solid year. It's so depressing to keep reading about Trump's unelectability and the inevitability of electoral college math. All I see is people pointing and laughing at the right, oblivious to the fact that Hillary is a wildly unpopular nominee and appears to be becoming more so by the week.
Where are the liberals promoting the ways in which the Democratic Party wants to make life better for ordinary Americans? Where is the relentless on-message promotion of Democratic Party policies in education, healthcare, childcare, employment, retirement security, etc? Nowhere that I can see.
Sanders people should join Trump right now... ROTFLMAO! Fell off my chair hurt my butt spilled a quart of water on the cat ROTFLMAO! Sanders people should join Trump right now. That is by and far without a doubt the stupidest thing I have ever heard, and after ten years of teaching college I have heard some seriously stupid shit.
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