Thursday, May 28, 2015

EVEN WIDELY LOATHED CHRIS CHRISTIE DOES BETTER AGAINST HILLARY THAN SUPPOSEDLY ELECTABLE JEB

Quinnipiac has a new national poll out, and it has bad news for Republicans, particularly Jeb Bush:
In a general election matchup, Clinton gets 46 percent of American voters to 42 percent for Paul and 45 percent of voters to 41 percent for Rubio. She leads other top Republicans:

46 - 37 percent over Christie;

47 - 40 percent over Huckabee;

47 - 37 percent over Bush;

46 - 38 percent over Walker;

48 - 37 percent over Cruz;

50 - 32 percent over Trump.
So despite all the negative press she's getting, Clinton still beats all of these guys -- in fact, she's held or increased her lead over every one of them since the last Quinnipiac poll, in late April. The scandals don't seem to be hurting her.

Notably, Clinton beats Jeb Bush -- the guy whose selling point is supposed to be electability -- by 10 points. (The widely loathed Chris Christie loses only by 9.) What's more, Jeb can't even exploit the long-standing gender gap in American politics -- he doesn't even beat Clinton among male voters, as do Rubio, Walker, and (especially) Paul. (Rand Paul beats Clinton among men by 9 points, but loses to Clinton among women by 16. Dudebro semi-libertrarianism is, unsurprisingly, a guy thing.)

Is Jeb even the Republican front-runner? Among Republicans, this poll has a five-way tie for first:
Leading the pack with 10 percent each are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker....

Rounding out the top 10 for televised debates are U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 7 percent, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 6 percent, Donald Trump at 5 percent, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie at 4 percent and Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2 percent each.
The numbers among Democrats are more evidence of something I told you a couple of days ago: that Bernie Sanders is the preferred alternative to Clinton, far ahead of Martin O'Malley:
Hillary Clinton dominates among Democratic voters nationwide, with 57 percent, compared to 60 percent April 23. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 15 percent with Vice President Joseph Biden at 9 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent with 14 percent undecided.
But please note this: Not only does Clinton still have a commanding lead in the Democratic race, she even beats Sanders 61%-28% among self-described "very liberal" Democrats. And only 9% of Democrats say they "would definitely not support" her (as opposed to 17% of Republicans who say that about Jeb). So Sanders has an uphill climb if he wants the nomination.

Clinton is still winning despite wariness about her:
American voters say 53 - 39 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, but say 60 - 37 percent that she has strong leadership qualities. Voters are divided 48 - 47 percent over whether Clinton cares about their needs and problems.
The "honest and trustworthy" numbers are awful, but how honest and trustworthy do Americans think most politicians are? We have low standards for this. We generally have to, don't we?