Friday, May 27, 2011


OK, this is weird enough:

In another sign of how unsettled the GOP presidential race remains, a new CNN poll finds Rudy Giuliani leading the field of possible contenders with 16%, followed by Mitt Romney at 15% and Sarah Palin at 13%.

(Oh, and if Palin and Giuliani don't run, the #2 and #3, after Romney, would be Ron Paul and Herman Cain, at 15% and 13% respectively. In the main poll, Cain is #5, at 10%)

But regarding Rudy, here's a weird thing in the crosstabs (PDF): He ties Romney among men (15%-15%), but he beats Romney outright among women (18%-15%). Among women, he's #1. (Palin's tied with Paul at #3, with 13%.) Hey, wasn't Giuliani's marital history supposed to hurt him among women?

Giuliani gets far more votes among under-50s (20%) than 50-and-overs (12%). And he does much better among voters with income under $50,000 a year (20%) than those who make $50,000 or more (12%).

Maybe these are just meaningless consequences of a small sample size and an idiosyncratic group of respondents. Maybe people aremostly picking candidates they know. But if we believe the numbers, poorer, younger female Republicans are Giuliani's base. What's up with that?

Well, for all the red meat being slung around by the candidates, most of them (the men, at least) seem like middle managers and bureaucrats. Maybe, in comparison with that group, Giuliani looks like a two-fisted hero. Now? Still? Really?

Another odd fact: the seemingly surging Herman Cain does way better among men (13%) than among women (7%) -- and in this survey, as in most surveys of Republicans, that means white men -- the sample of non-white Republicans is too small to generate a crosstab. I don't know what tht means, but he is the guy who brings the hate in the most effectively wingnutty way. So maybe that's what Republican guys want.

No comments: