Thursday, May 05, 2011


Barack Obama released his original birth certificate on April 27. CNN just conducted a national poll of Republicans and Republican leaners, with interviews that took place April 29 through May 1 -- all of them after the birth certificate was made public.

Damage to Trump? Not much. He's in second place, and he's ahead of Romney:

According to the survey, conducted just before the news of the death of Osama bin Laden, 16 percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they would be likely to support Mike Huckabee for the Republican presidential nomination....

Fourteen percent say they'd back Donald Trump....

One point back is Mitt Romney, at 13 percent.

That's a drop for Trump, but not much of one: in the last CNN poll, in April (PDF), he was tied for first with Huckabee, at 19%. But he's ahead of where he was in March (fifth place, 10%). As I noted yesterday, Trump's support also stayed reasonably strong in a Quinnipiac poll mostly conducted after the birth certificate was released.

Elsewhere, a new Washington Post poll says there's been a big decline in birtherism, even among conservative Republicans -- but 14% of the party still thinks Obama was born overseas. (Funny thing -- Trump's support in the CNN poll is also 14%.)

I've done a bit of lurking at various Fox sites and the Blaze, and I have to wonder whether this is the low point of birtherism. -- I think it might make a mini-comeback soon, in tandem with bin Laden deatherism. I want to see some polls eventually, broken down by party, on the question of whether Americans really think bin Laden died in that raid. I think there'll be skeptics across the spectrum, but I think there'll be more on the right -- and I think the decision not to release death photos will revive birtherism, too.

No comments: