Sunday, April 03, 2011


A professor, quoted in today's New York Times article about the Trump presidential campaign/pseudo-campaign/whatever-it-is:

"...Out of this campaign coverage, all you get are a lot of empty media moments about someone who is unlikely to run, more unlikely to be nominated, and utterly unlikely to win."

I agree with "unlikely to run" (and the Times article does a good job of summarizing the evidence that this is an oft-repeated Trump publicity stunt meant to sell him and his media products). I agree with "more unlikely to be nominated" (he's learned how to massage one wingnut pleasure center, but others in the race have been studying the hive mind of the GOP base and know how to massage several).

But "utterly unlikely to win"? I wish I were certain of that. It's a remote possibility that he'd get the GOP nomination, but I continue to believe that whoever does get the nomination will automatically be deemed sane and within the pale by the establishment press, just by dint of being a GOP Daddy (even if it's Palin or Bachmann) and a winner. And remember, this is a country where we've elected the likes of Rick Scott, Jesse Ventura, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Ronald Reagan. And there is that Newsweek/Daily Beast poll from February showing Trump trailing Obama by only 2.

Trump's not really serious about running. But if he were, I think we as a nation are capable of just saying "Oh, what the hell" en masse and voting him in, because, heck, America should be run more like a business! And Trump's on TV! We love TV!


And I don't know what to make of this:

David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network (CBN) suggested Thursday he [Trump] could be a great choice for President:
Before you watch the Donald Trump's interview with Bill O'Reilly last night let me sum up the main points that Evangelicals might be interested in:

- He's opposed to gay marriage.
- He's pro-life.
- He says "There is a Muslim problem" in the World.
- He says, "There is a doubt as to whether or not (Barack Obama) was born here."
As it turns out, Brody is not alone. As he reported yesterday, Donald Trump is getting some serious attention from some of the biggest names in evangelical politics:
Ralph Reed, one of the top GOP strategists in the country and Chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition tells The Brody File, "There is a nascent and growing curiosity in the faith community about Trump. Evangelicals will like his pro-life and pro-marriage stances, combined with his business record and high-wattage celebrity all but guarantee he will get a close look from social conservatives as well as other Republican primary voters." Tony Perkins, President of the Family Research Council is curious to hear more as well. "Given Donald Trump's background in the gambling industry and his flamboyancy one would not think he would be a fit with Evangelical voters. However, given the wide open field of candidates, strong statements that Trump has recently made on core social issues combined with an overarching desire to see a new occupant in the White House, he may find support among social conservatives."

Yeah, this is probably no more meaningful than Pat Robertson's endorsement of Giuliani in '08. But it's bizarre.

And meanwhile, in a GOP straw poll in York County, South Carolina -- won, not surprisingly, by Mike Huckabee, with Gingrich and Bachmann the only two other finishers in double digits -- I see Romney at 8% and Trump at 7%, tied with Pawlenty. That's not a top-tier performance, but still: 7%? A Noo Yawkuh? In South Carolina? And only a percentage point behind Romney?


As an aside, in the straw poll story, please note the unsurprising identities of several also-rans (Barbour, Thune, Daniels, Huntsman), and one surprising also-ran: Palin. I think she really has been simply replaced by Bachmann.

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